Friday, July 26, 2013

Revised NECBL Final Standings Predictions

I incorrectly ran a simulation, and this is my revised version of the standings predictions. Updated on July 26th, 2013.

The final games of the season are coming up on August 2nd, just seven days from now. Some teams will finish up on the first, and the playoffs start on the 4th, with eight teams competing to win the championship. However, we still have a week of baseball to go and it's up in the air about who will emerge from each division. Team's like Sanford and Holyoke are right on the fringe, while others fight for higher seeding. Here are my final predictions for when the last out is recorded on the 2nd.


Eastern Division

TeamWLPCTGB
NEWPORT32120.7270
OCEAN STATE26180.5915
LACONIA22210.5128.5
SANFORD22220.5009
MYSTIC21230.47710
N. BEDFORD18250.41912.5
PLYMOUTH12320.27319

The Newport Gulls take the top spot with a projected 32-12 record. The Gulls are one of the most dangerous teams in the league, near the top of both pitching and hitting categories. A 2.04 ERA so far this year, and a .268 team batting average puts them in position for their second championship trophy in as many years. Outfielder Benny Roberts breaks the doubles and runs scored record, and first baseman Steve Anderson sets the record for the most RBIs in an NECBL season.

In my projections, the Ocean State Waves stay in second, not catching up with Gulls, but finishing with a 26-18 record. The Gulls distanced themselves from the Waves by building a four game lead, but still could meet them in the Eastern Division Championship Series. The Waves are led by solid offense, which helps their average pitching. Hitting .268 as a team, Ocean State is anchored by infielders Caden Bailey, Christian Muscarello and outfielder Michael Gerber.

Following up behind the Waves are the Laconia Muskrats, six back of Newport. Lead by All-Star game MVP Joe Torres, the Muskrats are projected for a 22-21 finish and a #3 seed, set for a matchup with the Waves in the first round. In the middle of the pack in both pitching and hitting, Laconia quietly gets the job done and finishes just above .500.

The last team to make the playoffs are the Sanford Mainers, ahead of the fifth place team by just one game. A 22-22 record earns Sanford a series against the #1 seed Gulls, a task that will not be anywhere close to easy. The Mainers, in the middle of the pack in both hitting and pitching are helped into the playoffs by All-Star closer Steven Rice.

The Mystic Schooners finish in fifth place, just one game out of a playoff spot. A 21-23 record puts them 10 out of first, but two and a half ahead of the next team. The Schooners catch some tough luck, as a loss to Sanford in the last couple of days of the season knocks them out.

New Bedford and Plymouth take the last two spots, finishing with 18-25 and 12-32 records. The Bay Sox end 12.5 games out of first, while the Pilgrims possess the worst record in the NECBL and finish 19 behind the Gulls.

Eastern Division Playoffs
#1 Newport Gulls vs. #4 Sanford Mainers
#2 Ocean State Waves vs. #3 Laconia Muskrats


Western Division
KEENE28160.6360
VERMONT26180.5911
NORTH ADAMS25190.5682
SARATOGA20240.4557
HOLYOKE17270.38610
DANBURY16280.36411

The Keene Swamp Bats continue their incredible stretch and finish 28-16, and a game up on second place Vermont. After starting 3-11, Keene went on a 25-5 run and flew from the bottom of the Western Division to the top. Led by the best hitting team in the league, potential MVP JP Sportman and company take the #1 seed in the playoffs.

The Vermont Mountaineers started 15-4 and were the best team in the West, but finished 11-14 and dropped to second by just a half game with a 28-16 record. Still one of the top teams in the league, Vermont grabbed the #2 seed with their solid pitching. Starter John Miles is a finalist for the Robin Roberts top pitcher award, and their pitchers behind him help them in the postseason.

The North Adams Steeplecats take third, finishing 25-19. Rainouts and cancellations have plagued the Steeplecats, but it doesn't phase them as they fly into third, five up on the team behind the. All-Stars Scott Squier and Joeanthony Rivera lead the Steeplecats pitching staff, and the subpar hitting is picked up by their aces. Six games above .500 gets them just one game back of #2 Vermont to grab the #3 seed.

Rounding out the playoff field is the Saratoga Brigade, in their first season of play. The second expansion team to grab a spot in the postseason (Ocean State is the other), the Brigade finish 20-24 and in fourth place by five games. Near the bottom in both hitting and pitching categories, Saratoga sneaks into the playoffs thanks to the two teams behind them, who go a combined 3-11 over the last week.

The Holyoke Blue Sox (17-27) and the Danbury Westerners (16-28) finish in the bottom of the Western Division, seven and ten games out of playoff spots. The Westerners have been here most of the season, but the Blue Sox fell from fourth place to lose out on a playoff berth.

Western Division Playoffs
#1 Keene Swamp Bats vs. #4 Saratoga Brigade
#2 Vermont Mountaineers vs. #3 North Adams Steeplecats

No comments :

Post a Comment