Thursday, November 19, 2015

Pollock earns Gold Glove


AJ Pollock has a way of making things look easy in the outfield.

The former Vermont Mountaineers standout established himself as one of the best defensive players in the game during his first full MLB season with the Arizona Diamondback. Pollock was recognized for his efforts on Tuesday with the news that he was named a Gold Glove winner as the top center fielder in the National League.

Eight years removed from his time spent gracing the outfield at the Montpelier Recreation Field, Pollock rebounded from a season-ending injury in 2014 after playing in just 75 games. This past season he played in all but five games for the Diamondbacks, earning National League All-Star honors in a wildly successful year.

“He played the outfield for us and covered a lot of ground and got great reads on the ball off the bat,” Mountaineers general manager Brian Gallagher said. “It’s been great to follow his career as he’s done well at every level. He just keeps improving each year and works really hard.”

Pollock recorded a .315 batting average, a .367 on-base percentage and a .498 slugging percentage with 20 home runs and 39 stolen bases. But he had an even bigger impact on the other side of the ball, helping the Diamondbacks finish as the top defensive team in the major leagues. And Pollock was an anchor alongside fellow Gold Glove winner Paul Goldschmidt.

Pollock led all NL center fielders with 14 defensive runs saved, using a metric that rates individual players above or below average — with average being 0. Pollock also finished third in UZR, or ultimate zone rating, which is one of the most widely used defensive statistics as it attempts to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their defensive prowess.

Winning this award was a big step for Pollock, who emerged as one of the game’s young stars at the age of 27. Many bloggers have jumped on the Pollock hype train, with headlines ranging from “AJ Pollock is absolutely a star player” to “The enigmatic superstar AJ Pollock.”

For Pollock, it is clearly a big honor.

“I’m out there trying to play good defense to help the team win,” Pollock told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro. “It’s pretty unique now getting recognition for doing it. You always hear, ‘Gold Glove center fielder’ or ‘Gold Glove second baseman’ — to be able to have that in front of my name is pretty special.”

Pollock edged out 2012 Gold Glove winner Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds speedster Billy Hamilton. Gold Glove winners are selected by a vote of MLB managers and coaches (75 percent), as well as a statistical equivalent that ranks defenders called the SABR Defensive Index (25 percent).

Pollock became the first former Mountaineers player to win the elite defensive award.

“He was a key player on our 2007 championship team and really was a good team leader even as a freshman,” Gallagher said. “He is as good of a person as he is a baseball player, and he’s kept in touch with us and his host family.”

Pollock has accumulated many awards since his time with Vermont. In the Diamondbacks system, Pollock was an organizational All-Star in back-to-back years, was an All-Star in Double-A Mobile and has been named the National League Player of the Week three times.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Delaplane named NECBL Reliever of the Year

With a one-run lead going into the bottom of the tenth inning of the decisive Game 3 of the NECBL Finals, everyone knew who Vermont manager Joe Brown was going to turn to out of the bullpen. Eastern Michigan right-hander Sam Delaplane entered and finished off his 13th save of the summer, which the league rewarded by recognizing him as NECBL’s top relief pitcher.

Delaplane, who led the league with 10 saves in the regular season, joined Mountaineers alumni Mark Murray (2006) and McKenzie Willoughby (2004) as recipients of the league’s annual award. Current Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg also won the award in 2007.

“It’s a real honor to win this award because their were a lot of great relievers in this league, including my teammates and especially Teddy Rodliff,” Delaplane said. “I’m humbled that the league recognized me, and it’s also an unbelievable feeling to say that I can share an award with someone of that caliber.”

He finished with a 3.29 ERA over 17 appearances, but take away his two roughest outings (five runs allowed each) and he has a 0.00 ERA. He gave up earned runs in just three of his outings and converted 10 of 11 save opportunities during the regular season.

“This year my four-seam and two-seam fastball were working as well as my curveball,” Delaplane said of his keys to success. “I was able to consistently throw them for strikes and work ahead in the count, and not falling behind led to the success I had this summer.”

Delaplane gave up three earned runs in Game 1 of the championship series against Mystic while pitching on zero rest, but rebounded after a rainout to strand the game-tying run at the third in the tenth inning. He induced a pop-up to the first base side from Schooners shortstop Aaron Hill, and Vermont first basemen Simon Rosenbaum caught it on the fly to spark a wild celebration.

“I can’t think of words to describe what it was like,” Delaplane said on closing out the franchise’s third championship. “It was the most fun I’ve ever had on a baseball diamond and I’ll easily remember it the rest of my life.”

He entered having thrown 40 innings of relief for D-I Eastern Michigan, posting a solid 2.93 ERA over 23 appearances. Delaplane recorded seven saves for the Eagles, and will be in the closer role yet again when he returns.

“I just have to do what I did before and when I was here,” Delaplane said on his next collegiate season. “I have to work hard and execute pitches, and not get too high or low in my outings. I will be more confident entering this next season.”

His summer was one of the best ever for a Mountaineer reliever. He became just the fifth reliever in Vermont history to reach double-digit saves in the regular season, joining a club that contains Murray, Willough, Dusty Odenbach and Kyle Grana. Out of that group, Delaplane led with 43 strikeouts and a 14.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

“Sam was our go-to-guy late in games and he had the ability to step up as a closer and go two inning, if need be, to save the game,” Vermont general manager Brian Gallagher mentioned. “He always arrived to the park early and worked hard all season.”

Friday, August 14, 2015

Mountaineers alums are climbing the ladder

Trey Amburgey is making waves with the GCL
Yankees (Rookie League). /Bryan Green Photo
As the 2015 NECBL season wrapped up with the Vermont Mountaineers claiming their third title in franchise history, the team’s long list of alums are still playing across the country. Just as many of this year’s class will move on to professional baseball, many players from the team’s 13-year history are currently enjoying strong starts to their minor league careers. Here is a rundown of eight of them, headlined by the players who’ve had the most success.

Each of these players have a shot at becoming the next player on the team’s “Made it to the Majors” banner. Currently, Christian Friedrich (Rockies), Nick Martinez (Rangers), David Carpenter (Nationals) and A.J. Pollock (Diamondbacks) are all in the highest level of baseball in the United States.

Hitters

Micah Johnson, 2B, White Sox
Current Level/Age: AAA/24,5’10”/185, S/R
Drafted: 291st overall (9th round) in 2012 out of Indiana by the Chicago White Sox

Johnson got his cup of coffee earlier this season and played in 27 games for the White Sox, hitting at a .270 clip. However, defensive woes saw him return to Triple-A Charlotte, where he’s hit the cover off the ball. Somewhat injury-prone, Johnson recently went on the disabled list with a hamstring strain after hitting almost .400 in the month of July. He boasts a .328/.383/.487 slash line, and White Sox assistant general manager Buddy Bell mentioned in an interview with the Chicago Sun-Times that his defense has been “really good” with the Knights. A return to the pros is almost inevitable once he returns from injury, as the White Sox current second basemen are tied for last in the majors in WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

Brian O’Grady, 1B/CF, Reds
Current Level/Age: A+/23,6’2”/215, L/R
Drafted: 245th overall (8th round) in 2014 out of Rutgers by Cincinnati

After a breakout first year with Rookie-level Billings, O’Grady continued to hit the ball well for the Class-A Daytona Dragons, but he’s since hit a wall with Cincinnati’s Advanced-A affiliate, the Daytona Tortugas. The center fielder is hitting just .135 through his first 28 games and has managed just two extra-base hits. O’Grady is remembered in Vermont as the Swamp Bat who knocked the Mountaineers out of the playoffs in 2013, but he stole a franchise-record 25 bases in 2011, his first year in the NECBL. As for his future, O’Grady is over-matched in A+ and most likely won’t be moving up the Reds ladder any time soon. One concerning stat is that his walk rate has plummeted to just 9 percent with the Tortugas while his strikeout rate is hovering near one-third at 29 percent.

Amburgey slides into third with Vermont last year.
Trey Amburgey, CF, Yankees
Current Level/Age: R/20,6’2”/210, R/R
Drafted: 393rd overall (13th round) in 2015 out of St. Petersburg by Nnew York Yankees

Amburgey caught many scouts’ attention with an impressive All-Star campaign in 2014 for the Mountaineers, and the Yankees snagged him in the 13th round. He signed, preventing him from returning to Vermont for a second summer — which would have turned an already dangerous lineup into the league’s best, easily. He’s started his professional career off on the right foot in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, hitting a team-best .378 despite being half a year younger than the league-average. At only 20, Amburgey is already turning heads in the Yankees system as someone who has good bat speed, is a plus runner and is an athletic outfielder. He’s definitely a guy to watch in the coming years.

Matt Duffy, 3B, Astros
Current Level/Age: AAA/26,6’3”/220, R/R
Drafted: 610th overall (20th round) in 2011 out of Tennessee by Houston

Duffy is a big bat who can hit for both average and power, as evidenced by his .294/.369/.472 slash line over five years in the minor leagues. An All-Star in each of the past four seasons, Duffy has gradually moved up the ranks and sits in Triple-A Fresno with a .300 batting average and 16 home runs in 105 games. Currently blocked in the majors by the likes of Jed Lowrie, Luis Valbuena and Marwin Gonzales, Duffy still has a shot to get called up if one of them goes down. He’s improved his plate discipline this year as well, striking out almost five percent less while drawing walks more frequently.

Pitchers

Kyle Grana, RHP, Cardinals
Current Level/Age: A/24,6’4”/245, R/R
Drafted: Signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2013 out of Bellarmine by St. Louis

Grana was undrafted due to scouts questions on his size, as the big right-hander checks in at 245 pounds. He’s quickly proved them wrong in the Cardinals system, dominating opponents with Class-A Peoria. The closer, only 24, has moved up a level each year and has found success every step of the way. Despite having 30 saves and a 1.09 ERA over 63 career minor league appearances, Grana doesn’t appear on any Cardinals prospect lists and has been viewed largely as an organizational guy. St. Louis is also already grooming a pair of prospective closer in No. 11 prospect Sam Tuivailala and No. 26 Chris Perry.

Cody Ege, LHP, Marlins
Current Level/Age: AA/24, 6’1”/185, L/L
Drafted: 460th overall (15th round) in 2013 out of Louisville by Texas
 
After allowing just two earned runs over 19 appearances as a freshman out of Louisville’s bullpen, Ege was a reliable starter for the Mountaineers in 2011. He’s since returned to the bullpen and has found plenty of success after a lights-out junior year for the Cardinals. A 15th-round draft pick, Ege was recently dealt from the Rangers to Miami and has continued his excellent season. He’s thrown 52 innings across both organizations and has a 0.92 ERA while averaging almost 11 strikeouts per nine innings. There is plenty of MLB potential in Ege, as he’s only 24 and has already had plenty of success across five levels.
 
Robert Strader, LHP, Orioles
Current Level/Age: SS/21,6’5”/225, R/L
Drafted: 373rd overall (12th round) in 2015 out of Louisville by Baltimore

Just a year ago, Strader turned in his 19th appearance in a Mountaineers uniform as he spent two years in Vermont. His 2014 season was cut short due to an injury, but he finished with a 1.18 ERA over 38 innings of work with manager Joe Brown. A projectable southpaw, Strader has gotten off to a good start with Baltimore’s short-season affiliate Aberdeen. He has 17 strikeouts in 16 innings, and although walks are a problem, he’s getting used to the minors. Bottom line, Strader is only 21 and has already shown a lot of potential.

Cole Johnson, RHP, Twins
Current Level/Age: AAA/26,6’3”/200, R/R
Drafted: 1348th overall (44th round) in 2011 out of Notre Dame by Minnesota

Any kind of career out of a 44th-round pick is viewed as a success, and Johnson is certainly making a case to take that next step into the majors. Since being promoted midway to Triple-A midway through June, Johnson has a 2.89 ERA over 12 appearances and and 19 innings despite being a year younger than most of his teammates. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff but avoids walks and he should be ready to be tested in a bullpen role in the majors shortly.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Extra-inning thriller: Mountaineers claim first title since '07

When Vermont’s Ridge Smith came up to the plate in the top of the 10th with the go-ahead run at third base, he didn’t hesitate when manager Joe Brown gave him the bunt sign.

The All-Star catcher dropped a safety squeeze down the first base line and collegiate teammate Garrett Copeland raced home to secure the Mountaineers’ 3–2 extra-inning victory over Mystic in Game 3 of the NECBL finals.

The championship is Vermont’s first since 2007. By topping the Southern Division Schooners in 10 innings, the Mountaineers claimed their third Fay Vincent Cup in five tries for one of baseball’s signature organizations — moving them into sole possession of third place in league history.

“This was a very mentally draining game,” Vermont manager Joe Brown said. “It was a great college baseball game and fortunately we came out on top, which is tremendous. Ridge Smith had the courage and unselfishness to want to do that safety squeeze there, and I tip my cap to him.”

After blowing an early 2–0 lead, the Vermont bullpen tossed five scoreless innings. Vermont was countered by an equally solid effort from the Schooners, with reliever Jason Foley striking out seven batters and cruising into the 10th. However, he gave up back-to-back singles with one out to Copeland and Kevin Stypulkowski in the final frame and Copeland took the extra base to get to third.

Brown called for the safety squeeze, and it worked to perfection as Foley was handed the loss.

“There’s nothing better than being here this long this summer and being rewarded,” Smith said of the feeling. “I just was thinking to definitely not pop it up, and I stayed on top of it and did a good job. This was an awesome and amazing season.”

Joe Dudek opened the scoring for the Mountaineers with a first-inning RBI double just beyond the reach of a diving Derek Jenkins in center field. They added another run in the fifth as Mystic catcher Lou Iannotti’s throw to second on a double steal sailed high and wide, and Jack Parenty easily scored from third.

They gave a 2–0 lead to Tom Cosgrove and it looked untouchable for the first four innings. The left-hander who rejoined the Mountaineers after a two-week break didn’t allow a hit until one out in the fourth. He finished with five strikeouts. However, his own error cost him in the fifth.

After putting runners on first and second with two outs, Cosgrove induced a high-arcing popout in front of the mound. Smith came out from behind the plate but Cosgrove took his eye off of it for a moment and it nicked off a glove to bring in a run. After an intentional walk of Dan Hoy, Iannotti redeemed himself with a RBI single through the left side.

That would be all the scoring for the next four innings as both bullpens dug in. Mystic starter Joe Rivera and reliever Mike O’Rielly both gave up a run over three innings apiece, but once Foley came in, it was scoreless for four straight innings.

The Mountaineers secured the win with the bullpen combination Brown has relied on all summer long. Setup man Teddy Rodliff tossed four shutout innings and allowed just one hit to record the win, while closer Sam Delaplane picked up his biggest save of the summer.

Hoy reached via a one-out error in the bottom of the 10th for Mystic and worked his way around to third, but Delaplane induced a popout to first basemen Simon Rosenbaum, and the Mountaineers rushed out of the dugout and mobbed the mound.

Vermont has won the championship more times in the Northern Division than any team but the Keene Swamp Bats, breaking a tie at two with the Sanford Mainers and now-defunct Central Mass Collegians. Brown also became the first skipper in league history to win the title with two separate teams (Sanford in 2008) in addition to becoming the first to claim a national title during the spring collegiate season (the D-III championship with SUNY-Cortland).

“I give a lot of credit to these young men because this is a special thing,” Brown said. “I’ve been fortunate enough to be a part of this. To play on your last day in your college season and the last day here is a tremendous accomplishment.”

The last Mountaineers title came in 2007. For a franchise that made it to the divisional finals each of the past three years, the eight-year wait felt interminable. After undergoing constant turnover, including losing their best hitter in second baseman Thomas Roulis midway through the year, it was a resilient squad that pushed through for the title. Despite playing just.500 ball through June, the Mountaineers caught fire with the addition of multiple key players and won 10 of their last 13 regular season games to clinch the Northern Division for the second straight year.

They swept fourth-seed Laconia in the first round, then needed three games to dispatch No. 3 North Adams in the divisional finals before dropping Mystic. The Mountaineers became the first team since they joined the league in 2003 to drop the series-opening game and come back to win it all.

“They go home knowing they’re the champs,” Brown finished. “They go home and know that in two days they get their ring sizes. That’s a very special feeling. What an accomplishment.”

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Schooners, Mountaineers face off in NECBL Finals

Lefty Casey Brown is Vermont's probable starter.
Tonight, the Vermont Mountaineers and Mystic Schooners will face off in Game 1 of the 2015 NECBL League Championship Series. It’s certainly not an improbable matchup, as the Mountaineers won their division and went 4-1 in the first two rounds of the postseason, but many expected perennial contender Newport to claim the South after posting a regular-season high 27 wins.

Instead, Mystic blew out the defending league champions, routing them 16-2 in the series-clinching Game 2. The Schooners racked up 41 runs in just four games in back-to-back sweeps of New Bedford and Newport, getting two days of rest as they returned to the league championship series for the first time since their inaugural season as the Eastern Tides in 1994.

It’s easy to make a case for the Schooners based solely on momentum, as they closed the regular season winners of seven of 10n and haven’t lost in over a week. They finished the regular season with a team ERA of 2.61, 60 points better than the next team, and that stat alone makes their impressive hitting even more scary.

Still, this is a Vermont team that is a talented, balanced bunch that overcome a lot this season. Manager Joe Brown has handled 49 different players that have come into town, and they’ve been able to beat their opponents in a variety of ways. He’s taken them to the division finals in all three years he’s been a manager, and this was the year that they finally got over the top.

Both teams have plenty going for them, which will make this series one of the more exciting matchups in recent memory. Here is several storylines for both teams that face off at Mystic’s Fitch High School tonight, with first pitching coming at 6:05 p.m.

Vermont’s rotation

By starting Rocchietti in the series-clinching Game 3 against North Adams, Brown didn’t have to use ace Casey Brown on four days rest. Instead, a refreshed Brown will likely start the first game of the league finals and the Mountaineers have their top three pitchers lined up to start. Right-hander Sean Leland could start Game 2 while southpaw Tom Cosgrove is positioned to start the potential third game.

Brown was among the best pitchers in the NECBL in the regular season as the All-Star left-hander finished nine points shy of the ERA title with a 1.25 mark. However, Cosgrove is the only member who’s faced the Schooners. He took the loss, allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings.

Mystic’s offense
Hoy (Mystic photo)

Vermont has their rotation lined up, but they will be dealing with the hottest offense at any point in the NECBL this year. The Schooners scored 41 runs on 54 hits in four games, slugging four home runs and 18 extra base hits. They also drew 21 walks to 19 strikeouts and were a perfect 8-for-8 on stolen base attempts.

Dan Hoy homered twice and drove in eight runs in the Schooners two regular-season wins against the Mountaineers, and was back at it in the postseason. The shortstop has already hit two homers through the first four postseason games and is 9-for-18 (.500) with 11 RBIs. Facing the Mystic lineup is going to be a tough task for Vermont’s pitchers, as Nick Mascelli also has two home runs this postseason and they’ve scored at an unprecedented rate despite their regular season star Ben Ruta having a mediocre postseason.

Schooners enter following a day off

Potentially, the league champion could play nine games in nine days after a day off following the conclusion of the regular season. Both Mystic and Vermont swept their first round opponents, but the Schooners were off Saturday night after easily dispatching the Gulls. However, teams that sweep the divisional finals don’t always find success. The last five times a team that swept the divisional finals played a team that went the whole three games, the team that swept won just once.

Bullpens

The finals in the NECBL often come down to the bullpen — which team can preserve the leads that they’re given. Both teams had considerable success during the regular season, as they combined to go 40-4 when given a lead after six innings. The Schooners bullpen posted a 1.29 through 14 innings so far this postseason, while Vermont has a similar 1.80 mark over 15 innings.

Vermont used closer Sam Delaplane twice against North Adams, one of them a two-pitch appearance, after not needing him in the Laconia series. Delaplane led the league with 10 saves in the regular season, becoming just the fourth Mountaineer in franchise history to record double-digit saves. All-Star Teddy Rodliff hasn’t allowed a run over 6 1/3 innings this postseason and three other relievers made scoreless appearances.

Mystic counters with an equally strong bullpen, as the combination of Jason Foley, Michael O’Rielly, Teddy Turner and Sean Keenan has a 0.90 ERA over 70 innings during the regular season. Foley has already recorded a pair of saves in August, while long reliever Joseph Rivera extended his scoreless innings streak to 10.

Brown at Cortland. 
Managerial Matchup

Mystic’s Phil Orbe completed his fourth year manning the Schooners helm and has had plenty of success, but he is overmatched. Vermont’s Joe Brown, the Division-III Coach of the Year, is coming off a national championship run with SUNY-Cortland. He also knows how to push the right buttons, whether by putting his relievers in the right spot, bringing the right guy off the bench at the right time, or executing an aggressive gameplan on the basepaths perfectly.

Brown also has NECBL finals experience, having won the 2008 title with the Sanford Mainers.

Thursday, August 6, 2015

Northern Division Finals Preview: North Adams vs. Vermont

Vermont's offense put up 23 runs in two games against
Laconia, easily sweeping the Muskrats.
After winning back-to-back 11-inning elimination games, the third-seeded North Adams SteepleCats advanced to the Northern Division Finals for the first time since 2010 to take on the No. 1 seed Vermont Mountaineers. Vermont advancing wasn't much of a surprise, as they easily dispatched Laconia in two games, but the SteepleCats opponent in Sanford were favored to move on for a rematch of last year's division finals.

Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG)

SteepleCats
C-R Logan Boyher (.223/.333/.264)
1B-S Joe DeLuca (.263/.322/.388)
2B-L Hunter Lee (.234/.316/.348)
SS-R Michael Osinski (.233/.258/.233)
3B-R Jim Haley (.245/.289/.290)
LF-R Michael Babb (.167/.267/.359)
CF-R Graham McIntire (.206/.331/.280)
RF-L Parker Perez (.296/.354/.348)
DH-R Robert Calabrese (.269/.336/.343)

Mountaineers
C-S Kevin Stypulkowski (.253/.313/.385)
1B-L Joe Dudek (.265/.351/.410)
2B-S Garrett Copeland (.287/.396/.357)
SS-R Isaiah Pasteur (.354/.411/.369)
3B-R Ridge Smith (.289/.353/.407)
LF-R Nick Ruppert (.284/.402/.351)
CF-L Laren Eustace (.314/.392/.430)
RF-R Austin Wilson (.156/.229/.156)
DH-L Jack Parenty (.308/.358/.383)

Vermont's offense put up 23 runs in their two-game sweep of Laconia, despite hitting just .231 as a team. Six stolen bases and patience at the plate (16 walks) boosted them, as did the Muskrats committing multiple errors. Regardless, the Mountaineers lineup has a considerable edge over North Adams for various reasons.

The depth Vermont manager Joe Brown has is unmatched. The lineup above doesn't include first basemen Simon Rosenbaum, who drove in three runs against Laconia, as well as Austin Taylor, Austin Clemons and Riley Jackson. The Mountaineers finished the regular season hitting .264 as a team, 30 points better then the SteepleCats (.235). North Adams was even worst over their three-game set with the Mainers, hitting just .212 and scoring just 11 runs.

Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, FIP)

SteepleCats
RHP Dakota Edwards (38.2, 1.16, 3.49)
RHP Matthew Kostalos (57, 4.90, 4.49)
RHP John Erhardt (26.2, 3.38, 3.99)
RHP Robby Buffis (34.2, 5.97, 4.15)

Mountaineers
LHP Tom Cosgrove (32, 3.09, 3.04)
RHP Damian Powers (36, 4.25, 4.63)
LHP Casey Brown (43.1, 1.25, 3.30)
RHP Sean Leland (37.1, 4.10, 2.53)

North Adams ace Dakota Edwards struggled in the series-opening loss to Sanford, and the SteepleCats are also without workhorses Dalton Westfall and Josh Garran. However, Kostalos turned in a stellar seven-inning start while Erhardt went 5 2/3 as well. The listed probable for North Adams, Buffis, is among the league's worst pitchers as he has a -3.1 WAR that is worst among qualified starters.

Vermont, meanwhile, has a strong rotation. Brown and Leland combined to throw 11 of the 18 innings against Laconia, keeping the bullpens workload down. Cosgrove returned after going home for a brief stretch, and both him and Powers are viable candidates to start, as well as several relievers.

Bullpen

The Mountaineers have arguably the better bullpen, and are also the beneficiary of the NECBL's playoff schedule. By sweeping Laconia, they secured a day off to rest their arms and will enter this series at full strength. They didn't need to use closer Sam Delaplane, one of the league's best relievers, against the Muskrats, and still have plenty of arms who can take up big chunks of games.

North Adams, meanwhile, needed to use two of their more reliable arms in Jared Habershaw and Tanner Bird twice against Sanford. Vermont has an edge here as well, especially after the day off.

Prediction

The Mountaineers have home-field advantage and also had a day off to rest their arms. North Adams, meanwhile, played 30-plus innings over three days in an exhausting matchup with the Mainers. I see Vermont moving on to the finals for the first time since 2009, snapping a two-year stretch of losing in the second round.

Monday, August 3, 2015

NECBL Playoff Capsules

Eight teams remain in the race for the NECBL’s Fay Vincent Cup with the two-month regular season out of the way as we finally get to down to the nitty-gritty. Who’s got the edge?

No. 1 Vermont Mountaineers vs. No. 4 Laconia Muskrats

Tim Viehoff, Laconia /LMR
If you’ve read our Mountaineer coverage over the past few weeks, the one thing you should know about Vermont is that they’ve never had their full complement of players available- which meant that manager Joe Brown did a lot of maneuvering to keep them in pole position. They flew to the finish, overtaking the tanking Muskrats midway through July, going 16-7 in the second half of the year.

The pitching came into its own down the stretch, leaping up to third best in the NECBL. Ace Casey Brown shook off a pair of shaky starts to establish himself as one of the league’s best pitchers and the workhorse of the staff, posting a 1.25 ERA over a team-high 43 1/3 innings. The relief core is formidable as well, led by the flame-throwing closer Sam Delaplane and his league-best 10 saves that come along with an overpowering 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

Vermont’s offense might be the one thing holding the Mountaineers back from cruising through the opening rounds. The team ranks third in the league in runs scored, but the bats fell silent more frequently in the last month of the season as the arms picked them up. Still, the Mountaineers may be best armed with an aggressive lineup that led the league in stolen bases (100) and gets on base at a .343 clip (4th).

When the bell rings, Vermont will be fully able to go toe-to-toe with the team they ousted last August, a ballclub that’s out for revenge after the Mountaineers knocked them out of first.

That would be the Muskrats and manager Nick Cenatiempo, who enter with zero momentum and in a tailspin. A few weeks ago, Laconia sat atop the division as the hottest team in baseball after putting together winning streaks of five and four. They dropped all the way to fourth after losing four straight games to end the summer, and enter just 3-7 over their last 10 games.

Laconia also is without the All-Star duo of James Davison (22 steals ranks second in the league) and Braxton Martinez (14 RBIs), a big blow to one of the league's best offense. They still boast a dangerous lineup, headlined by catcher Deon Stafford, who played in all but one game and put up a .329 average with 16 doubles and 24 RBIs. He’s joined by Cam Hanley (.311, 24 RBIs) and Brian Mims (.303, 23) as they attempt to overcome Vermont’s arms.

Tim Viehoff, the league leader in strikeouts (58), will need to turn in a stellar start for the Muskrats, whose starting rotation after the lefthander is shaky. Viehoff threw 51 innings for Laconia and went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA, but just 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three matchups against Vermont. A shaky start from their ace will spell the end of the season for the Muskrats.

No. 2 Sanford Mainers vs. No. 3 North Adams SteepleCats

Ben Wessel, Sanford Mainers /PP
Seventh year manager Aaron Izaryk, since taking over for now Vermont manager Joe Brown, has had plenty of success. The one thing he hasn’t been able to replicate, however, is Brown’s title-winning year with the Mainers in 2008. Izaryk, who recently recorded his 150th NECBL win, guided Sanford to the finals last year, but they were swept by Newport. Now, after a late push, Izaryk and the Mainers are in position to contend for their third championship in franchise history and end a seven-year drought.

Weaknesses are few and far between. What do you attack? The rotation? It’s seemingly built for the playoffs, with three different pitchers that could all serve as No. 1 starters on another teams, with Joey Abraham’s 2.25 ERA the worst of the trio. The bullpen? Well, the core four of Aaron Casper, Cody Dube, Cam Hatch (the returning NECBL Reliever of the Year) and Iannick Remillard made 57 appearances and totaled 87 innings and 120 strikeouts with a 1.34 ERA. The lineup? They’re in the top-five of the NECBL in a majority of the categories and have plenty of pop with a team that features Dalton Thomas, Shaine Hughes and Sam Dexter.

Balance. The Mainers have it, and that is easily one of the most important things to make a push for the title. At full strength, Sanford on paper should oust the overachieving SteepleCats with relative ease. North Adams vaulted to third thanks to Laconia’s struggles, as they only went 10-13 in the second half of the season with a sub-.250 team average and an ERA just a few points below 4.00.

With just one player hitting over .300, North Adams doesn’t have a lineup that is hard to work around. With Victor Sorrento (.303, 22 RBIs) and Parker Perez (.296, 15 RBIs) the only two threats, opposing pitchers can avoid pitching to them and cruise through the rest of a lineup that is hitting just .221.

However, the reason the SteepleCats have found success is because of stellar pitching from the front three of their rotation. Dakota Edwards, who threw a no-hitter against Sanford in his first start of the summer, has a 1.16 ERA over 38 innings, while the duo of Dalton Westfall and Josh Garran have identical 2.33 ERA’s over 77 combined innings of work. The bullpen is one of the league's worst, but if the trio of starters can turn in gems, they might have a shot at scoring what would be on of the postseasons biggest upsets.

No. 1 Newport Gulls vs. No. 4 Ocean State Waves

Joven Afenir, Newport /NRI
Not only has Newport made the NECBL playoffs in every year since they were established in 2000, but they’ve won the first round all but once as they aim for a second straight championship and seventh in franchise history. They are currently on a string of success so dominant that they polished off a 27-win 2015 season as their 15th straight season with 25-plus wins. This year, as the best team in the league, the Gulls are once again favorites to win the Fay Vincent Cup.

Like Sanford, it’s hard to find a weakness. Boasting the league’s best offense (first in average and runs scored), Newport also holds the fourth best staff ERA. Despite losing ace James Karinchak (4-1, 0.72 ERA) after just five starts due to a pitch count, the Gulls still have one of the best starting rotations- where they count Colton Hock’s 3.86 ERA as the highest mark. Opponents are hitting just .229 against their pitchers, and they are a perfect 16-0 when turning the ball over to the bullpen with a lead after five innings.

Somehow, that’s not the strongest part of their team. The lineup boasts threats throughout, from the 1-2 punch of Joven Afenir (.344, 27 RBIs) and Shea Donlin (.341) as well as the slugging duo of Drew Lugbauer and Max Beermann, who’ve each launched five home runs. The liking starting nine from the all-time winningest manager in NECBL history, Mike Coombs, is hitting a combined .291.

Ocean State will have their hands full. Newport’s pitching ranked second in strikeouts, while the Waves pack of home run hitters are very strikeout-prone. It’s not exactly a match made in heaven for Ocean State, as they’re hitting just .230 as a team (11th). Sluggers Tim Lynch, Chuckie Robinson and Dylan Burdeaux have combined for 24 home runs, but 90 strikeouts as well.

However, even scratching across a few runs could be enough for the Waves pitching staff, who are among the league best. Ocean State has a 3.25 ERA (2nd) and a group of solid starters, backed up by a reliable bullpen. Lefthander Ryan Gray (4-0, 1.86 ERA) has been practically unhittable, holding opposing batters to a .186 mark over seven starts. Meanwhile, Richard Lovelady (1.91) has established himself as one of the best relievers over 19 appearances while Brad Applin (1.85) has an even better over 24 1/3 innings.

No. 2 Mystic Schooners vs. No. 3 New Bedford Bay Sox

Ben Ruta, Mystic /Schooners
One one hand, the Mystic Schooners franchise last won a title in 1994 as the Eastern Tides- then suffered losing seasons in 16 of the next 20 years. On the other, New Bedford, formerly the Torrington Twisters, have never won in a championship in their 18 years. This first round matchup features the weight of 38 combined years of losing, and should be a good one.

The Schooners, who finished just a game behind the first-place Gulls for the best record in the NECBL, are the obvious favorite. They have a league-best 2.61 ERA, which is more than 60 points better than the second place mark. The numbers Mystic’s pitchers put up are ridiculous, and it makes them even more scarier in the context of their offense, which finished second in runs scored.

Ben Ruta, who put together a 21-game hitting streak in July, finished the season with a .341 average along with 28 RBIs and 30 runs scored. Richard Slenker (.325, 17 RBIs) and Jake Meyers (.315, 15) form a dangerous front of the Schooners lineup. They’ll provide plenty of run support to the Schooners pitching staff, who don’t necessarily need their starters to go long. The bullpen combination of Jason Foley, Michael ORielly, Teddy Turner and Sean Keenan has a 0.90 ERA over 70 innings.

New Bedford, after going .500 in June, went 13-11 in July to lock up the three seed after missing the playoffs in 2014, a season in which they won just 11 games. Closer Jon Escobar has continued to perform on a high level, posting a 1.08 ERA over 17 appearances with eight saves. The offense has been anchored by Jayson Sullivan, who hit a team-high .324, and Anthony Critelli, who played all but one game and drove in 28 runs.

Saturday, August 1, 2015

Franchise Four: The Top Vermont Mountaineers


For the recent All-Star Game, Major League Baseball asked its fans to vote on each team’s “Franchise Four”, the best quartet of players in each franchise’s history. It was such a great idea, The Times Argus is stealing it.

We’ve come up with the four greatest Vermont Mountaineers in team history, based on their accomplishments while playing at Recreation Field; not what they did afterwards.

It was a difficult process to pick from the hundreds of players who have suited up for Vermont over the past 12 years. There are several notable omissions, which are discussed after the picks. For batters, the opening “slash line” includes batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Here are the Vermont Mountaineers’ Franchise Four, in no particular order:

Robbie Minor (2004-06), Evansville, SS - .251/.328/.309, 110 G, 94 H, 57 R, 36 SB

One of just a few three-year players in Vermont’s history, Minor wrote his way into the record books and was a key reason why the Mountaineers went from a .500-team in 2004 to become a championship squad in 2007. A First Team All-NECBL selection, as well as the Sportsmanship Award winner in 2006, Minor enjoyed a successful career in Montpelier.

Having played three years for the Mountaineers, the only batter to do so, Minor ranks first in Vermont’s regular-season record books in a variety of categories: games played (110), runs scored (57) and stolen bases (36).

“It has been the time of my life,” Minor said during a Times Argus interview in 2006. “It has been a summer to remember for the rest of my life. When I get older, I want my kids to do the same thing.”

On the last day of the season in 2006, with the regular season divisional title locked up, Vermont manager John Russo allowed Minor to play all nine positions, switching every inning. The box score is impossible to keep track of as he moved from shortstop to third, second and first before completing a circuit of the outfield.

He even caught an inning for fellow infielder Troy Krider before coming on to pitch for a batter. Minor surrendered a single and was pulled to allow Mark Murray to record his 16th save of the summer.

“By the sixth or seventh inning, I was dying from running around all over the place,” Minor said after his nine-inning marathon. “But it was a lot of fun. Toughest (to play) was catcher because it felt like a 100 degrees with all of the gear on. Most fun was centerfield because I got to see the whole field from there, and I’m not used to that when playing shortstop.”

It was just one of many great memories Vermont fans have of the All-Star shortstop who was a member of the 2006 team that secured the franchise’s’ first NECBL title.

Curt Smith (2006-07), Maine, 3B - .318/.392/.467, 80 G, 96 H, 18 2B, 27 SB

Smith, quite literally, could do it all. Scouts grade baseball players on five essential tools, and borrowing a line from Moneyball, it’s very rare you come across someone with all five. Curt Smith could run, he could throw, he could field, he could hit, and he could hit for power.

He piled up accolades in his two summers, winning a pair of NECBL titles while starting in both All-Star games. Smith also was also named to the NECBL First Team twice and earned Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2006, after committing just two errors in 40 games at the hot corner.

Smith hit .318 over 80 games with the Mountaineers, and holds the regular-season career records for the most doubles (18) and hits (96) as well as the single-season records for hits (50 in 2006) and triples (four in 2007).

In the 2006 finals, Smith hit a two-run triple in the title-clinching win over the Torrington Twisters, then homered and powered the Mountaineers offense to a second-straight championship over the Newport Gulls. He delivered time and time again, from a walk-off home run into the fog in the semifinals against the Holyoke Blue Sox in 2007, to scoring the game-winning run in the semifinals in 2006 as well.

He was the stuff of legends. Nobody could see the ball leave the park as the fog had settled in 2007, but the players and the fans knew it was gone the moment he swung the bat. Even Russo admitted he knew Smith was going to do something magical.

“Curt is the best player this team has seen in the five years here,” Russo said afterward. “He is also one of the best kids attitude-wise and the way he plays. To say we expected him to hit a home run would be hard - it’s hard to expect anyone to do that - but it is amazing that every big situation he always delivers.”

Mike Gaggioli (2005, 2007), Georgetown, LHP- 8-4, 18 G, 2.21 ERA, 90 K, 105.2 IP

Not often does somebody make two NECBL All-Star games, let alone start both of them. That’s exactly what Gaggioli did in 2005 and 2007, establishing himself as the best pitcher in the league and starting for the Northern Division. It was his postseason performance, however, that puts him at the top of the list as one of the best pitchers in Mountaineers history.

In 2007, after missing 2006 with an injury, Gaggioli struck out 12 and spun a complete-game one-hitter in the championship-clinching victory over Newport. It was a masterful performance, as he took a no-hitter into the seventh en route to tossing a complete-game shutout.

“I think it has to be one of the best pitching performances,” Russo said of Gaggioli after the win. “Talk about the pressure. The game was scoreless for six innings and to have a no-hitter through seven, it was just an awesome performance. I know Mike wanted to finish that game, and his stuff got better around the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. He is one of those kids who loves this place and this community. He came back after a year away. He just loved being here and he wanted to win today for the fans.”

In 2005, Gaggioli was the probable starter for Game 3 of the finals against Newport — a game that wasn’t played as the Gulls swept Vermont. He wasn’t going to pass up a second chance, as the lefty faced just two batters over the minimum. Gaggioli also struck out eight over six innings to record the win in the deciding game of the Northern Division semifinals against the Keene Swamp Bats.

It capped another great summer in Vermont, as the southpaw holds records for the most career starts (17), strikeouts (90) and wins (8) while posting a 2.21 ERA.

Mark Murray (2005-06), Evansville, RHP- 41 G, 2-1, 26 SV, 0.19 ERA, 59 K, 47.2 IP

Weighing in at 170 pounds, Murray didn’t fit the stereotypical build of an overpowering closer. However, once he arrived in Montpelier, the right-hander turned in two years of pure dominance. Murray compiled considerable career numbers and as an All-Star in 2006, when he set the NECBL single-season record for saves (16).

“He throws all the time,” Russo said after Murray broke the saves record with his 14th save. “He is in great condition. When you think of the two summers, the numbers he has put up are unbelievable. The other side of it is that people think it’s nice and easy, but he works hard at it every day.”

In his two years and almost 50 appearances out of the Vermont bullpen, Murray allowed just one earned run and a career 0.19 ERA, the lowest in franchise history. His durability was key during the Mountaineers championship run in 2006, the year in which he was named the league’s top relief pitcher and earned All-NECBL First Team honors.

“Murray summed it up one time,” Russo said. “When I asked him after throwing for three days in a row if he was going to be fine to go out again, and he said ‘Hey, have I ever turned you down?’ And he hasn’t over two summers. The saves have been his and he’s locked it down.”

He finished 2006 without allowing an earned run, posting a 0.00 ERA over 22 1/3 innings. Murray set down the Southern Division side in order in the ninth during the All-Star Game, securing a 6-2 win against a team that had three future MLB players in Ryan Lavarnaway, Nick Gorneault and Chris Iannetta.

“I have never had as much fun during the summer as I have these last two summers,” Murray said during the finals in 2006. “When my college coach put me up here, I didn’t know what to expect. When I got here, I felt like I was at home even though I was a 20-hour drive away from my house. They treat me well up here and that makes it easy to come out and play every day when you have so many fans supporting you.”


NOTABLE OMISSIONS

Picking just four was a tough task, as plenty of talented players were left off the list. Here are our four Honorable Mention selections:

A.J. Balsinde (2006-08), Maine, RHP - 55 G, 76 IP, 2.13 ERA, 5 SV, 62 K

The only pitcher in Mountaineers history to play three seasons, Balsinde won two championships for Vermont and appeared in a franchise-record 55 regular season games. The right-hander made 26 appearances in 2008 and was named the league’s Most Improved Player after posting a 1.42 ERA following a 3.31 mark in 2007. Balsinde finished with a 2.31 ERA over three summers as a reliable middle reliever.

Kyle Brault (2004-05), UVM, OF - .266/.353/.549, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 36 R

Brault, the franchise leader in home runs (15), played in a pair of seasons for the Mountaineers and swung a big bat. He hit nine homers in 2005 and finished his career with Vermont as the regular-season leader in extra base hits (33). Brault had a two-home run game in June of that year, and still has his name in the record books 10 years later.

Troy Krider (2005-06), Evansville, 2B - .317/.406/.373, 43 R, 14 RBI, 12 2B, 16 SB

A two-time All-Star, Krider was a key piece of the talented 2006 championship team that boasted the league’s best defense. Krider, who eventually transferred to Evansville to play with Robbie Minor, was a stellar defensive second baseman who turned 28 double plays during his two-year Mountaineer career. He finished with a .317 batting average over almost 70 regular season games and scored 43 runs, ranking third in team history.

Jason Carey (2003-05), UVM, OF- .300/.391/.427, 43 R, 25 RBI, 15 2B, 27 SB

The team’s first true star, Carey played during Vermont’s first two seasons before an injury cut his 2005 season short after just nine games. Carey was a huge addition to the Mountaineers in their first season, as he had just completed a stellar campaign with UVM. The 2003 season was a rough one for the Mountaineers, as they won just 15 games, but Carey quickly emerged as the franchise’s top player. He finished with a career .300 batting average over 65 regular season games and scored 43 runs while swiping 27 bases.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

NECBL Power Rankings: Gulls lead the pack

Three days. Somehow, that's all that is left of the NECBL regular season. Two months have flown by, as this is my last regular season edition of my power rankings. The Newport Gulls are No. 1 yet again in this week's rankings, firmly securing the top spot with a league-high 26 wins. However, they haven't clinched the Southern Division thanks to a late push from the Mystic Schooners, while the Vermont Mountaineers meanwhile have a firm hold and can clinch their second consecutive Northern Division title tonight.

However, the rest of both divisions are dead heats. Just three games separate teams two through five, while the battle for the final three spots in the South comes down to 2 1/2 games. Head to head, this has been fun, and both will come down to the wire. After the first three teams, these rankings were near impossible to determine.

Just as a note, please feel free to contact me with comments either on Twitter (@bradleysmart15) or via email: bsmart17@student.u32.org

1. Newport Gulls (26-12) - (1)
The defending NECBL champs pieced together an eight-game winning streak that ended a few days ago to reach 25 wins for an unprecedented 15th straight season. Even without first-half ace James Karinchak, the Gulls still have a 3.20 ERA in July (2nd) while going 15-5.

2. Mystic Schooners (25-15) 2 (4)
Newport hasn't clinched yet thanks to Mystic, who've heated up and are on a five-game winning streak. The Schooners, leading the league in ERA (2.53) by 70 points, have won seven of 10 and sit just two games out of first place. The bullpen is among the leagues best, as they're 21-1 when leading after seven.

3. Vermont Mountaineers (24-15) 1 (2)
Vermont technically dropped a spot in this weeks rankings, but that's due to playing one less game. They can clinch the Northern Division title for the second consecutive season tonight against Sanford, so home-field advantage through the first two rounds is in store. A seven-game winning streak helped.

4. New Bedford Bay Sox (21-19) 5 (9)
A 5-1 stretch has vaulted the Bay Sox into third place into the Southern Division as they've won six of 10. En route to their first winning season since 2012, New Bedford climbed five spots after beating the likes of Ocean State, Vermont and Mystic.

5. Sanford Mainers (21-18) - (5)
Sanford didn't move in the last week or so after going 4-3, but it was enough to pull a half game up on Laconia for the second playoff spot and home field advantage in the first round. However, they place Vermont twice in the next few days and could easily be passed by Laconia.

6. Laconia Muskrats (21-19) 3 (3)
After conceding first place in the North last week to Vermont, Laconia has continued to fall. Losing Braxton Martinez and James Davision hasn't helped, as the Muskrats offense scored just 3.2 runs per game (.227 team average) and went 3-7 over their last 10 games.

7. Ocean State Waves (19-19) - (7)
The Waves didn't move for the second straight week as they are the only .500 team in the league after dropping back-to-back games. They were recently leapfrogged by New Bedford and now sit in fourth with the last playoff spot, but hold a 1 1/2-game lead.

8. Plymouth Pilgrims (18-21) 2 (10)
Winners of two straight, including a 3-2 win over first-place Newport, Plymouth sits just 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Meanwhile, triple-crown candidate Brent Rooker leads the league in home runs (9) and RBIs (31) but sits 18 points behind the leader in average.

9. North Adams SteepleCats (19-21) 1 (8)
Valley practically gave the SteepleCats a playoff spot, as North Adams has gone 5-5 over their past 10 games while the Blue Sox plummeted. They're hitting just .235 as a team (11th) and have a pitching staff that is ninth in ERA. Still, they hold a half-game advantage in fourth.

10. Valley Blue Sox (18-21) 4 (6)
Valley is trending sharply downward, as they're on a four-game skid that has dropped them out of a playoff spot in the North. Only a half-game out of fourth, the season obviously isn't over, but the Blue Sox are just 2-8 over their last 10 games and rank near the bottom of the league in both average and ERA.

11. Danbury Westerners (12-27) - (11)
After going 1-7 in the past week, any hope that Danbury could extend a four-game winning streak was quickly dashed. The Westerners are en route to a third consecutive season with less then 20 wins and have had sub-.500 records in more then half of their 21-year old existence.

12. Keene Swamp Bats (11-28) - (12)
Well, not much to be said here. Keene has already set a franchise high for losses by four games, and there is still three games left in the season. The championship season of 2013 seems like ages ago, as they've gone a combined 32-49 the past two years.


Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Crowded Northern Division: Playoff Odds

With just five games separating the division's contenders and pretenders, the Northern Division race is coming down to the wire. The NECBL undergoes constant turnover, but it's normally a safe bet to pick the Keene Swamp Bats to win the division- since 2009, they've finished first in the North/West all but once.

However, this summer, something unpredictable happened. Keene is absolutely awful. Already eliminated from the postseason with just nine wins and a miserable .243 winning percentage, the Swamp Bats are eight-and-a-half games out of fifth place and have already secured their worst season in franchise history and just the second losing season all time.

Parity has emerged, as it's likely the title won't be clinched until the last few days of the season. Vermont holds a two-and-a-half game lead on first, looking for their second consecutive division title, but nothing's decided yet. The five games separating teams one through five make it the closest division race (absent Keene) in NECBL history, as I wrote about in my competitive balance piece.

So out of the five teams, how is the playoff picture shaping up? Vermont has already clinched a playoff spot.

Current W-LDivision Title %Total Playoff %
Vermont Mountaineers23-1592%100%
Sanford Mainers20-175%48%
Laconia Muskrats21-182%48%
Valley Blue Sox18-190%28%
North Adams SteepleCats18-200%19%

It's interesting to look at, as after Vermont the playoff odds are very similar. Sanford and Laconia have advantages while Valley and North Adams will fight for the last spot. It will definitely be an interesting race to the end, as Vermont meets the Mainers twice in the last three days of the summer.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

NECBL Power Rankings: Gulls vault into first

There hasn't been that much action since I last came out with my power rankings, as the All-Star Game was washed out in Sanford and many players enjoyed a three-day break. However, competitive baseball is back, and Week Six of my rankings saw a new No. 1- Southern Division leading Newport, with Northern's top team, Vermont, right on their tail. A rematch of the 2009, 2007 and 2005 championships could be in store.

1. Newport Gulls (21-11)  2 (3)
Newport blew past the Schooners with a three-game winning streak and sit atop the NECBL with 21 wins and are on pace for at least a 25-win season for the 15th consecutive year. The Gulls lead the league in average (.279) and are fourth in ERA (3.43). A fourth straight finals appearance is possible.

2. Vermont Mountaineers (20-13)  2 (4)
Winners of five straight and eight of ten, the Mountaineers are the hottest team in the NECBL and rapidly rising. They have a 25 1/3 scoreless innings streak after shutting out Keene twice and have a one-game lead in the North as they look to win the division for a second straight year.

3. Laconia Muskrats (20-14)  1 (2)
In a huge matchup with Vermont last week, Laconia came up short and fell 5-4, surrendering first place in the North. Boasting one of the league's best offenses, the Muskrats have struggled in close games, going just 3-7 in one-run games. They're also a middle-of-the-pack 8-7 in July.

4. Mystic Schooners (20-13)  3 (1)
Mystic dropped three spots from first place over the past week, going 2-2. Like I said last week, the nine-game winning streak at the beginning of the season is the reason the Schooners are still this high up. They've gone just 11-12 since then.

5. Sanford Mainers (17-15) - (5)
Sanford has dropped back-to-back games but still are one of the hotter teams in the league. Winners of six of ten, the Mainers have a dangerous offense and an above-average pitching staff that makes this team contenders. Dalton Thomas is working on a 14-game hitting streak.

6. Valley Blue Sox (17-16) - (6)
Valley, who briefly led the North earlier this year, now sits in fourth and are on the verge of falling out of a spot in the postseason. The Blue Sox lost to North Adams last night and now hold just a one-game lead on the SteepleCats for fourth place.

7. Ocean State Waves (16-15) - (7)
No change for the Waves, who've struggled over the past week. They've dropped seven of ten and are on a two-game skid, but still hold a 1 1/2 game lead over fourth place New Bedford. Tim Lynch won the Home Run Derby with 18 total over two rounds on Sunday.

8. North Adams SteepleCats (17-18)  1 (9)
The SteepleCats rose a spot in this week's rankings due to the teams behind them struggling. North Adams, who went 2-2 since the last edition, sits just a game out of the final playoff spot in the Northern Divison. They picked up a big win against Valley last night to move closer.

9. New Bedford Bay Sox (16-18)  1 (8)
4-1 against fifth place Plymouth, New Bedford is clinging to the fourth playoff spot in the South by a game. Two games under .500, the Bay Sox have dropped six of 10 and BaseRuns estimators put them at a 14-20 record instead- easy pickings in the first round of the playoffs.

10. Plymouth Pilgrims (14-18) - (10)
Brent Rooker is enjoying an MVP-caliber season for the Pilgrims, who haven't gained or fell in the past week after going .500. Rooker boasts a slash line of .371/.416/.629 and currently leads the league in average and RBIs and has the potential for the first Triple Crown.

11. Danbury Westerners (11-20)  1 (12)
The Westerners beat New Bedford and Mystic in the last week, putting together a four-game winning streak while also winning seven of their last 10. Danbury is 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot in the Southern Division, but the Bay Sox continue to fall.

12. Keene Swamp Bats (8-24)  1 (11)
Currently on a six-game losing streak, the league's perennial contender has just been awful. Hitting just .224 as a team, the Swamp Bats are on pace for their first losing season since 2010 and just their third in franchise history.

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Competitive Balance in the NECBL

A few years ago, Matthew Namee of Bill James Online came up with the index of competitive balance. Devised to measure how balanced major league baseball currently is and how it's evolved over time, I decided to apply it to the NECBL.

Namee's formula is very simple, as for each league/year, he subtracted each team’s winning percentage from .500; then, he took the absolute value of that number and multiplied it by 1000. Here's the 2012 Northern Division.

TeamPct.Score
Newport.756256
New Bedford.59595
Laconia.41585
Sanford.366134
Mystic.225275

You then calculate the average score, which, in this case, was 169. That is the division's Competitive Balance Score or CBS. Theoretically, a perfectly balanced division/league would be zero, and a totally imbalanced league would score at 500. Of course, those extremes would never happen as every year in NECBL history has scored from 58 to 133.  At 169, the 2012 Southern Division was the most imbalanced division in league history.

On the contrary, the most balanced division in the NECBL's 21-year history was the 2013 Northern Division. This was a league that was decided on the last week of the season, as just 5 1-2 games separated teams one through four.

TeamPct.Score
Keene.614114
Vermont.54545
North Adams.5000
Holyoke.48911
Saratoga.46733
Danbury.395105
There is no visible trend over time, as the league has alternated between balanced years and very imbalanced years. Here's a look at the average CBS scores over time.

2014
111
2013
60
2012
127
2011
127
2010
87
2009
108
2008
104
2007
76
2006
109
2005
83
2004
70
2003
120
2002
119
2001
105
1999
129
1998
109
1997
58
1996
122
1995
76
1994
133

As you can tell, it's gone up and down. There's a good bit of year-to-year variation, but it can be broken up into ERAs. From 2011-12, the league had two of it's most unbalanced seasons while the stretch from 1998-2003 was very similar. Here's a chart of the year-by-year outlook.

This year, the NECBL is dropping again. Even with bottom-feeders Danbury and Keene pushing up the score, the league is currently on pace for their second-lowest season in the past five years. The Northern Division is currently at 79, but the top five teams, removing 8-22 Keene from the picture, are just 48.

As always, thanks for reading. Feel free to drop a comment with your thoughts below, and reach out to me on Twitter @bradleysmart15.