The NECBL 2013 Home Run Derby field has been announced, so it's time for my updated predictions (see pre-announcement post for original picks).
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| (Clockwise from upper left) Ryan McBroom, Riley Palmer and Christopher Shaw |
It's hard to predict who will win this event. We know winning it requires a great swing and confidence to perform in front of a crowd. While regular season results don’t factor into the Derby scoring, it’s hard not to look at how players have performed up to this point.
Keeping that in mind, here is how I see the Home Run Derby unfolding on All Star Sunday.
11. Nate Lapointe, Sanford Mainers
Lapointe doesn't have a home run this summer, and didn't have one this past spring at Boston College. I don't see him moving past the first round.
10. Brian O'Grady, Keene Swamp Bats
O'Grady is back for his second season in the NECBL, with his first coming as a member of the Vermont Mountaineers. O'Grady has two home runs this year, and had two more for Rutgers, but I still don't see him moving past the first round given the competition.
9. Vahn Bozoian, Holyoke Blue Sox
Bozoian has the same line as O'Grady - two home runs in both the NECBL and his most recent collegiate season. Bozoian will be done after the first round.
8. Kyle Smith, Vermont Mountaineers
Smith, as a senior in high school, parked 10 home runs, and has one so far this summer. He has the ability to burst out, but a first round finish is my expectation.
7. Shaun McGraw, Ocean State Waves
McGraw has two dingers for the second-place Waves, and added four this past college season. He's got some power but I don't see him advancing.
6. Steve Anderson, Newport Gulls
This is where things start to get close. Anderson has three home runs this year, and added six over the course of the regular and postseason for Newport last year. He also hit three for his college team. Anderson is a talented hitter, but I think he will just miss the cut.
5. Cody Doyle, North Adams Steeplecats
Doyle will almost make the cut, but miss it by a couple home runs. Doyle has one home run for North Adams so far this year, but be expecting more as he lead his college team with five home runs this last season.
4. Matt Beaty, Saratoga Brigade
Beaty will make the cut, even with only one home run for the Brigade this season. Beaty hit the ball very well this spring, as he hit a team-leading seven home runs for Belmont. He won't make it past the second round, but he’ll come close.
3. Riley Palmer, Danbury Westerners
One of the league leaders in home runs (4), Palmer will sweep into the final four but fall just short. His five college home runs won't be enough, as he'll go down to Ryan McBroom and Chris Shaw.
2. Ryan McBroom, Laconia Muskrats
McBroom comes into this with a pair of NECBL home runs, but there is so much more to his story. He's a freshman at the University of West Virginia, and in his senior year in high school hit 14 home runs, setting a school record. He has the power to go all the way, but he'll come up just short in the Championship round.
1. Chris Shaw, New Bedford Bay Sox
My pick to win the 2013 NECBL Home Run Derby, Shaw has been consistently hitting home runs for a long time. This summer, he's tied for the league lead with four, and this past spring he led his college team with six. Last summer, he played in the Futures Collegiate Baseball League and set a record with nine home runs. Shaw is a force to be reckoned with and will end up taking down McBroom for the championship.
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