Northern Division Finals Preview: North Adams vs. Vermont

Vermont's offense put up 23 runs in two games against
Laconia, easily sweeping the Muskrats.

After winning back-to-back 11-inning elimination games, the third-seeded North Adams SteepleCats advanced to the Northern Division Finals for the first time since 2010 to take on the No. 1 seed Vermont Mountaineers. Vermont advancing wasn't much of a surprise, as they easily dispatched Laconia in two games, but the SteepleCats opponent in Sanford were favored to move on for a rematch of last year's division finals.

Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG)

SteepleCats
C-R Logan Boyher (.223/.333/.264)
1B-S Joe DeLuca (.263/.322/.388)
2B-L Hunter Lee (.234/.316/.348)
SS-R Michael Osinski (.233/.258/.233)
3B-R Jim Haley (.245/.289/.290)
LF-R Michael Babb (.167/.267/.359)
CF-R Graham McIntire (.206/.331/.280)
RF-L Parker Perez (.296/.354/.348)
DH-R Robert Calabrese (.269/.336/.343)

Mountaineers
C-S Kevin Stypulkowski (.253/.313/.385)
1B-L Joe Dudek (.265/.351/.410)
2B-S Garrett Copeland (.287/.396/.357)
SS-R Isaiah Pasteur (.354/.411/.369)
3B-R Ridge Smith (.289/.353/.407)
LF-R Nick Ruppert (.284/.402/.351)
CF-L Laren Eustace (.314/.392/.430)
RF-R Austin Wilson (.156/.229/.156)
DH-L Jack Parenty (.308/.358/.383)

Vermont's offense put up 23 runs in their two-game sweep of Laconia, despite hitting just .231 as a team. Six stolen bases and patience at the plate (16 walks) boosted them, as did the Muskrats committing multiple errors. Regardless, the Mountaineers lineup has a considerable edge over North Adams for various reasons.

The depth Vermont manager Joe Brown has is unmatched. The lineup above doesn't include first basemen Simon Rosenbaum, who drove in three runs against Laconia, as well as Austin Taylor, Austin Clemons and Riley Jackson. The Mountaineers finished the regular season hitting .264 as a team, 30 points better then the SteepleCats (.235). North Adams was even worst over their three-game set with the Mainers, hitting just .212 and scoring just 11 runs.

Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, FIP)

SteepleCats
RHP Dakota Edwards (38.2, 1.16, 3.49)
RHP Matthew Kostalos (57, 4.90, 4.49)
RHP John Erhardt (26.2, 3.38, 3.99)
RHP Robby Buffis (34.2, 5.97, 4.15)

Mountaineers
LHP Tom Cosgrove (32, 3.09, 3.04)
RHP Damian Powers (36, 4.25, 4.63)
LHP Casey Brown (43.1, 1.25, 3.30)
RHP Sean Leland (37.1, 4.10, 2.53)

North Adams ace Dakota Edwards struggled in the series-opening loss to Sanford, and the SteepleCats are also without workhorses Dalton Westfall and Josh Garran. However, Kostalos turned in a stellar seven-inning start while Erhardt went 5 2/3 as well. The listed probable for North Adams, Buffis, is among the league's worst pitchers as he has a -3.1 WAR that is worst among qualified starters.

Vermont, meanwhile, has a strong rotation. Brown and Leland combined to throw 11 of the 18 innings against Laconia, keeping the bullpens workload down. Cosgrove returned after going home for a brief stretch, and both him and Powers are viable candidates to start, as well as several relievers.

Bullpen

The Mountaineers have arguably the better bullpen, and are also the beneficiary of the NECBL's playoff schedule. By sweeping Laconia, they secured a day off to rest their arms and will enter this series at full strength. They didn't need to use closer Sam Delaplane, one of the league's best relievers, against the Muskrats, and still have plenty of arms who can take up big chunks of games.

North Adams, meanwhile, needed to use two of their more reliable arms in Jared Habershaw and Tanner Bird twice against Sanford. Vermont has an edge here as well, especially after the day off.

Prediction

The Mountaineers have home-field advantage and also had a day off to rest their arms. North Adams, meanwhile, played 30-plus innings over three days in an exhausting matchup with the Mainers. I see Vermont moving on to the finals for the first time since 2009, snapping a two-year stretch of losing in the second round.