Sunday, December 9, 2012

BCS Bowl Games Preview

With the Bowl season upon us, the games are way more competitive, as the best teams in college football duke it out with the whole country watching. The Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and others all get played as build up to the BCS Championship. Each bowl game has a rich history of exciting contests, thrilling endings and heartbreaks. This year includes a rich slate, featuring storied franchises such as Stanford, Wisconsin, Michigan and many more.

Here, in order of most interesting, are the games that will be making an appearance on the national stage come January.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats


Two weeks ago, Oregon and Kansas State found themselves in the driver’s seat, ready for their assumed championship matchup. Then along came loses to Baylor and Stanford, and they dropped to 4th and 5th, respectively, in the rankings, out of title consideration.

Both teams come into the Fiesta Bowl with 11-1 records, talented quarterbacks, and smart coaches. This game is truly one for the ages, and has become known as the “Poor man’s BCS championship.”

Kansas State’s weapon is the 6’5” offensive force they have in Collin Klein. A Heisman Trophy contender, Klein abused defenses week in and week out on his way to over 2,490 yards passing and another 890 on the ground. He’s combined for 27 touchdowns, earning him nominations for the Walter Camp Award, among others.

The Wildcats would not be where they were if it wasn’t for John Hubert. Hubert, a small guy (listed at 5’7”), has a big impact. Without him taking some carries off Klein’s shoulders, Klein would have less of an impact. Hubert is the perfect man for the job, as he consistently finds the small holes to rack up yardage. He also leaves his mark on the screen game. Hubert finished the season with 974 all-purpose yards and 15 touchdowns, including one where he went for a 95-yard touchdown against Missouri State.

Facing off against the Wildcats is Oregon’s double-headed attack, led by stellar freshman Marcus Mariota, who put up impressive numbers at quarterback. Mariota is joined by senior running back Kenjon Barner, who is just as intimidating.

Mariota, who earned the starting QB position because Darron Thomas’ surprise decision to head to the NFL, proved that he was ready for the task. He’s in the top 5 nationally in completion percentage (69.1%) and quarterback rating (165.4).

Barner, a senior who had a break out year in 2011, continued the trend by leading the third-best rushing team by racking up 1,624 yards on 248 carries with 21 touchdowns, fourth in the nation.
The deciding factor of this game pitting two offensive powerhouses will simply be who scores the most points. What else would one expect from two below-average defenses facing two of the most intimidating offenses in college football?

In the end, Oregon’s slightly better and more talented offense will lead them to a slim, but high-scoring victory. Klein will still show why he’s a Heisman candidate, but it won’t be enough.

Oregon 42, Kansas State 35

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma Sooners


This game is one of the more interesting bowl games this year, but only if you like watching points pile up like they’re going out of style. That’s what to expect when these two teams clash, as both are averaging over 40 points a game, and have two of the best quarterbacks in the nation: Johnny Manziel and Landry Jones.
Texas A&M brings Manziel, their freshman quarterback and winner of the 2012 Heisman Trophy (the first time ever that a freshman has one the award), to the table with stats that look like they’re from a video game. Manziel has flourished in Texas A&M’s Air Raid offense, and his stats prove it. This year, as a true freshman, he’s thrown for 3,419 yards and 24 touchdowns, while adding another 1,181 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground.

His counterpart, Landry Jones, has just as impressive stats. Jones, appearing in his final collegiate game, is more of a passer, having completed 332 of 507 passes this season, a 65% completion rate, for 3,989 yards and 29 touchdowns. He’s not the all-purpose athlete that Manziel is, but his throwing skills have led Oklahoma to the nation’s fifth best passing offense.

The thing that will make this game even higher scoring is when you factor in the defenses. Both defenses are in the Division 1 cellar, allowing a combined 50 points a game. Pit that against the Aggies 45 points a game and the Sooners 40 a game, and it will be a pointathon.

Overall, the Aggies and the way their offense suits Manziel will come out on top, making Jones exit to the NFL a disappointment. It won’t be all that sad, though. Lots of points will be scored, and Jones will pad his stats on his way to the NFL.

Texas A&M 38, Oklahoma 30

Chick-Fil-A Bowl:  LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers

Two 10-2 teams face off in this BCS bowl, but the similarities stop there, as both teams followed totally different paths to this final game of the season.

LSU, led by a stifling defense, ranked 11th in the country, were the preseason #3, just behind Alabama and USC. But, like many other teams in the country, they had to face two talented teams (then #10 Florida and #1 Alabama) that they couldn’t sneak by, losing the two games by just 12 points.

Their defense, captained by safety Eric Reid, gives up just 16.9 points a game, including when they limited the nation’s third best offense (Texas A&M) and its Heisman-winning quarterback (Johnny Manziel) to just 19 points, 25 points below their average.

They now face another big test in Clemson.

Clemson got here in the opposite way LSU did, as they relied on their sixth-ranked offense, scoring over 40 points a game. Clemson, like LSU, faced tough teams and couldn’t pull through in the clutch, losing to then #4 Florida State and #12 South Carolina, by a combined 22 points. It sounds like a lot, but when Clemson is beating teams by 30 points consistently, it’s not.

Three players lead Clemson’s high-flying, talented offense. Quarterback Tajh Boyd starts the fire, leading the 13th ranked passing offense with 3,550 yards passing and 34 touchdowns, while adding almost 500 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. Next, there’s the running game, with Andre Ellington leading the way with 1,031 yards and 8 touchdowns; along with 6’1” DeAndre Hopkins and his 1,214 yards and 16 touchdowns. Given this horsepower, it should be no surprise Clemson is scoring 42.3 points a game.

This game promises to be interesting as both teams have strengths and weaknesses that match up well: Clemson’s talented offense is evenly matched with LSU’s toughness on D, and LSU’s low-scoring offense is matched with Clemson’s below-average defense. The deciding factor of this game will be the team that best leverages its strength. Looking at their respective schedules, its easy to project which team will have the advantage.

Clemson played just two top 25 teams (the perils of being in the ACC), and lost to both of them. All of their other games were against teams like Furman and Ball State, with virtually no hard teams, making it easy for them to have such a high-scoring offense. LSU, on the other side, had a challenge almost every week. They took on five Top 25 teams, and won three of them, including games against South Carolina and Texas A&M.

LSU 28, Clemson 20

Rose Bowl presented by Vizio: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinals


The big finale before the National Championship game is the Rose Bowl. The most watched bowl game; this year’s match up gives good reason to expect another large audience. Stanford, 11-2, comes into the game after an impressive November, including five straight wins over ranked teams, including their knocking off then #2 Oregon, thus shaking up the BCS landscape. They’ll face Wisconsin, 8-5, which enters its third straight Rose Bowl after a convincing win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game. Both of teams have a lot of talent, but only one team really belongs here.

That team is Stanford. Coming off losing an unusually large number of talented players to the NFL (Andrew Luck, David DeCastro and Colby Fleener to name a few), Stanford pushed on and proved why they deserve to be here. Led by Stepfan Taylor, their senior running back who piled up over 1,400 yards, the Cardinal beat talented teams, and their two losses came down to a margin of just seven points. There stifling defense, led by ball-hawking safety Eric Reynolds (six interceptions, ranking him 5th in the nation), gives up just 17 points a game, which ranks 16th overall.

Wisconsin seems to be out of place, as they finished fourth in there conference, only earning a spot in the Big 12 title game because of NCAA penalties. Penn State and Ohio State, both ahead of the Badgers, violated NCAA’s rules and earned postseason suspensions. Wisconsin finished the season going 4-4 in the division and 8-5 overall. Their five losses came to some talented teams, though, as the combined record of there opponents who beat them was 45-16. However, Wisconsin snuck by a lot of teams that they should have soundly beat, and showed that perhaps the only way for them to win games was to run the ball with Montee Ball, the Badger’s All-American running back and 2011 Heisman nominee, who had another great season.

At a glance, this game pits a talented Stanford team against a much weaker Wisconsin, and should be entertaining if you’re a Cardinal fan, as Stanford will hand the Badgers their sixth Rose Bowl loss and third straight.

Stanford 30, Wisconsin 17

3 comments :

  1. Nice post- I don't agree with your post on Clemson though- they're not overrated at all! GO CLEMSON!

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  2. What I'm wondering about, in general, is that you're not expecting any blow outs, except perhaps Stanford. But a 13-point victory isn't what I would call a blow out. Which of these games do you think could really open up, if everything lined up for one team over the other.

    I'm thinking Stanford could really pound Wisconsin, winning by 20+ points. I also think that the Oregon-Kansas State game could be even higher scoring, with one team winning by a slightly bigger spread.

    Thoughts?

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    Replies
    1. Sorry I took so long to reply! I agree with you that Oregon-Kansas State could really open up, most likely in Oregon's favor. If there defense warms up, they're pretty much unstoppable. Stanford also has the possibility to pound on Wisconsin, but I think it will stay close because Wisconsin has shown signs of a decent defense over there last couple of games.

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