BCS National Championship Preview

The 2012 NCAA football season was as interesting and exciting as any other season in recent memory. You had everything, from upsets to incredible plays. You saw a freshman win the Heisman for the first time in history. You watched as the #1 team in the preseason drop out of the top 50 teams in the nation. You got to see the two teams destined to play for the national championship both lose with two weeks left. You even saw a senior take home six of college footballs prestigious awards.

At the end of this chaotic season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Alabama Crimson Tide emerged as the top two teams that will meet in Sun Life Stadium on January 7 to play for the BCS Championship.

Notre Dame, the nation’s #1 team, has come a long way. Under Coach of the Year Brian Kelly, their top-ranked defense led the way to an undefeated 12-0 record and the #1 ranking. Manti Te’o, their defensive savior, took home six awards, including the Walter Camp and Maxwell Awards, earning him the honor of being college football’s best player. Kelly and the Irish come into this game trying to end a 23-year championship drought.

Alabama, which was in the nation’s top five teams for the entire season, including a eight-week span at #1. The Crimson Tide kept their blueprint from their past two titles, which is to play shutdown defense (ranked second in the nation), combined with a run game that frustrates opponents (averaging 230 yards and nearly three touchdowns per game). This year, Alabama modified their plan by reducing starting quarterback A.J McCarron pass attempts and replacing them with better looks. This change resulted in McCarron averaging over ten yards per pass attempt (tops in the nation) and an incredible 173.1 passer rating, also first in the nation. Saban and the Tide come into this game trying to win the SEC’s seventh straight title and there third in four years.

Perhaps the most interesting part of this game is how alike these two teams are. Both teams have a dynamic defense that shuts down opponents. Both teams are 50-50 between run and pass plays. Both teams average the same number of turnovers, get around the same amount of penalties, and basically play the same game of football.

However, there are some differences between these two teams that will decide this game.

Alabama has shown they can win against top teams. One could argue Notre Dame can as well, and they are undefeated, but Alabama has an edge here. Notre Dame played four ranked teams, and won by 48 points, an average of 12 point wins over teams like Oklahoma and Michigan State. However, if ignore Alabama’s five point loss to Texas A&M, they played four Top 25 teams and beat them by a combined 67 points. Included in that list were then #5 LSU and #8 Michigan. They showed that their defense isn’t the only thing they need to win (the defense allowed 66 points in those games), which was what their seasons were about during their last two championships.

The big talk these past couple of weeks is about Notre Dame’s goal line defense, which has been referred to 

from a brick wall to a force field. The hype about this defense comes from the Stanford game, where in overtime, clinging to a seven point lead, the Irish stuffed top running back Stepfan Taylor four times in a row to preserve their undefeated season. Their D-line, highly touted, gives up touchdowns just 24% of the time opponents are in the red zone. This is a big problem for Alabama, who against winning teams got in 66% of the time, which means they scored touchdowns two out of every three times, and they’re going against a rock-hard defense that gives up a red zone touchdown once every four times.

Facing a top-ranked defense, it may be rare for Alabama to get a bunch of red zone opportunities, which could be a big factor in this game.

However, this red zone advantage doesn’t just belong to Notre Dame. Alabama has the second lowest opponent red zone conversion rate in the country, ahead of the Irish, at 62.96%, one percent better than Notre Dame. This advantage is somewhat offset when you consider that Alabama gives up a touchdown 46% of the times that they don’t stop their opponent.

One big thing that stands out in this game is the quarterbacks. McCarron, a junior, has a lot of experience. A 22-year old, McCarron has played in two BCS Championship games, won both of them and added a title game Offensive MVP award on his resume. He is a talented player capable of pulling through in the clutch, like he did against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, and as he has done all season. His counterpart, sophomore Everett Golson is the opposite of him. The title game will be just his 13^th of his short career, and he doesn’t have the stats or resume backing him up. McCarron threw for over 2,600 yards while adding 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions, while Golson threw for barely 2,100 and 11 touchdowns, while throwing five picks. The inexperience will show in a pressure situation, and McCarron’s maturity will help the Tide.

Finally, the run game. Both teams balance their game plan pretty evenly, as it’s about 50-50 run and pass. And, yet again, Alabama has the upper hand. Led by the dynamic duo of freshman T.J Yeldon and junior Eddie Lacy, these two combined for 2,182 yards, 27 touchdowns and averaged seven yards a carry, leading Alabama to a very efficient rush offense. The Tide ran for the 20^th most yards a game, 5^th in yards per carry and 13^th in rushing touchdowns. Compared to Notre Dame, whose 27^th in yards per game, 28^th in yards per carry and 45^th in rushing touchdowns, which says a lot. Notre Dame can’t keep up. Their go to backs, Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood, mixed in with all-purpose quarterback Everett Golson, combined for 2,430 yards while averaging just barely five yards a carry. All around, in total yards, Alabama has 2,920 to Notre Dame’s 2,430.

What’s interesting is that the run game could be shut down completely. Alabama has the best-run defense in the country, only giving up 80 yards a game, while Notre Dame is not to far behind. The Irish are 4^th in run defense, giving up just 92 yards a game. Alabama gives up just two yards a carry, so expect to see Riddick and Wood consistently getting stuffed and pushed back, forcing Golson to air it out and use the passing game. Notre Dame gives up about three yards a carry, so it will be a grind it out, slow paced game with a lot of punts if these teams revert to their run games.

Finally, there’s the pass defense. Alabama, again, is up there on, at 6^thnationally, only giving up 166 yards a game, with 17 interceptions this season. The Irish pass defense is also strong, at 20^th in the nation, giving up about 200 yards a game. The Irish, also have a ball-hawking defense with 16 interceptions. However, because of the big difference between these two teams’ quarterbacks, there is a clear advantage for the Tide.

All around, the Tide and the Irish have their strengths and flaws, but one team has more strengths then the other. Alabama has more advantages, and if it wasn’t for their nail-biting loss to the Aggies, they would be at the top of the rankings. Taking all of their advantages, they factor into a win for the Crimson Tide, extending the SEC’s six year title game winning streak another year.

Expect the beginning of this game to be defense-controlled, with no points on the board until the second quarter. Notre Dame will pull ahead 7-3 going into half, and there momentum will carry into the third quarter, which is all Notre Dame. The Irish put ten points on the board to go up 17-3. However, in the fourth quarter, McCarron shows his cool by leading Alabama on three drives, scoring two touchdowns and a field goal. Alabama’s defense comes around in the fourth quarter after digging themselves into a 14-point hole, and shuts out the Irish and their hopes at there first title in 23 years.

Alabama 20, Notre Dame 17