Monday, July 4, 2016

The 13: Happy Birthday, America.

Here's Week 2 of the 13. Happy Fourth.

13. New Bedford Bay Sox (7-13, minus-31 run differential)

Minus-31 run differential. Yikes. Getting blown out 15-1 on the road by Vermont doesn't help the cause, but the Bay Sox are looking like the worst team in the league for a variety of reasons. They're last in runs scored (65) and ERA (4.37) and are 12th in batting average (.221). New Bedford, simply put, gives up a lot of runs and doesn't score many.

12. Newport Gulls (9-12, minus-2)

The Gulls have lost eight of their last 10 and look lost. Since starting the year 7-4, they've fallen off quite a bit. Newport ranks 11th in both ERA and batting average, and they've struggled to get anything going. It's weird to see a perennial contender three games under .500 entering July, and to make things worse they're not showing signs of heating up.
Mikael Mogues has been one of the best
hitters in the league for Vermont.

11. Vermont Mountaineers (6-13, minus-6)

After a franchise-worst start to the summer, the Mountaineers have shown signs of life. They beat then-Northern Division leading Keene twice, and have won four straight at home. They rolled over the Bay Sox, 15-1, scoring the most runs by any NECBL team in a game this season. With reliable pitching and an offense that is heating up, Vermont is in position to turn around their season. Sitting seven games under .500, the Mountaineers have a ways to go -- but they're only 4 1/2 out of the fourth playoff spot.

10. Sanford Mainers (9-11, minus-21)

Over the last five games, the Mainers are hitting .241 and have averaged four runs a game. To put into perspective their offensive woes this summer, that's a hot stretch. Sanford enters July hitting a league-worst .217 and they've averaged just 3 1/2 runs per game. Even with strong pitching, it'd be hard to overcome that.

9. Upper Valley Nighthawks (9-11, minus-3)

The league's newest franchise has lost three straight for the second time this season, and it's dropped them two games below .500. The Nighthawks lead the league in average (.275), but they've been blown out during this three-game slide. Losing games to Valley, Winnipesaukee, and Mystic, the Nighthawks have been outscored 27-8. Opponents are hitting .254 against Upper Valley pitching, a mark that ranks 10th in the league.

8. Danbury Westerners (12-12, minus-18)
7. Plymouth Pilgrims (10-10, plus-17)

Danbury and Plymouth are a pair of .500 teams I'm not sure what to say about them. The Westerners have a minus-18 run differential, and the Pilgrims are plus-17. It's interesting how much of a swing that is. The Westerners have given up a league-high 123 runs, while Plymouth's played four less games and given up 53 less runs. Random.

6. Mystic Schooners (11-10, plus-3)

The defending Southern Division champions sit three games back of Ocean State, and have alternated wins and losses for much of the season. The Schooners lead the league in runs scored and on base percentage, but they've coughed up quite a few runs with one of the league's worst pitching staffs. Mystic ranks second to last in ERA (4.36), a far cry from the template that allowed them to advance to the finals last season. With a league average pitching staff, Bill James pythagorean expectation would put them with a record of 14-7, one of the best in the leagues. 

5. Winnipesaukee Muskrats (11-9, plus-5)

The new-look Muskrats have come on as of late, entering this week with a two-game winning streak having won seven of their past 10. A crowded top of the North Division doesn't have room for four top teams, but expect the Muskrats to be one of the last teams standing. They're gaining on the Swamp Bats and have split the season series so far with them at one game apiece. Winnipesaukee's paced by Anthony Godino, one of the best players in the league, who's hitting .357/.471/.586 with four doubles, four home runs, 20 runs, and 12 walks.

Vermonter Mike LaBeau has been excellent.
4. Keene Swamp Bats (12-8, minus-15)

How does a top four team have a minus-15 run differential? By winning a lot of close games and getting blown out in others. The Swamp Bats, losers of two straight, are a team that could very easily be 8-12 instead of 12-8. They've lost back-to-back games to last place Vermont, and are a mediocre 5-5 over their last 10 games. Since starting the year 7-1, they've gone just 4-7. It's easy to see that Keene could continue to fall, but they do have bright spots. Michael LaBeau has been one of the league's best relievers, piling up six saves, while fellow reliever Carmen Giampetruzzi has been equally dominant.

3. North Adams SteepleCats (11-9, plus-19)

The SteepleCats have gone 1-3 since my last edition of these rankings, losing three straight after winning three in a row. That back-and-forth play has been maddening for North Adams fans, but they have potential. They're second in the league in runs scored and are lurking just outside of first in the North. 

2. Valley Blue Sox (12-8, plus-34)

You can easily make an argument for the Blue Sox at the top, notably with both run differential (the best in a landslide) and how well-rounded they are. Winners of three straight, Valley is heating up once again and have a dangerous roster. They're second in team average (third in runs scored) and third in ERA, and they've also swiped a league-best 47 bases. The Blue Sox have pop and get on base -- their .262/.358/.387 slash line is second in the league. 

1. Ocean State Waves (13-6, plus-18)

The Waves are 3-4 (still on pace for 30 wins) since their 10-2 start, and that includes a pair of losses to Danbury and another to New Bedford. They've slowed down, and a huge part of that has been a lack of production of the offensive side of things. Ocean State has the league's best pitching, easily -- they rank first in both ERA (2.42) and opponent average (.210). However, the offense has cooled off, hitting just .184 over the last five games. Ocean State beat Mystic and Newport back-to-back to keep their top spot, but they've averaged just over two runs a game during this recent 2-3 stretch, and will have to heat up to stay atop the league.

No comments :

Post a Comment