BCS National Championship Preview

The 2012 NCAA football season was as interesting and exciting as any other season in recent memory. You had everything, from upsets to incredible plays. You saw a freshman win the Heisman for the first time in history. You watched as the #1 team in the preseason drop out of the top 50 teams in the nation. You got to see the two teams destined to play for the national championship both lose with two weeks left. You even saw a senior take home six of college footballs prestigious awards.

At the end of this chaotic season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Alabama Crimson Tide emerged as the top two teams that will meet in Sun Life Stadium on January 7 to play for the BCS Championship.

Notre Dame, the nation’s #1 team, has come a long way. Under Coach of the Year Brian Kelly, their top-ranked defense led the way to an undefeated 12-0 record and the #1 ranking. Manti Te’o, their defensive savior, took home six awards, including the Walter Camp and Maxwell Awards, earning him the honor of being college football’s best player. Kelly and the Irish come into this game trying to end a 23-year championship drought.

Alabama, which was in the nation’s top five teams for the entire season, including a eight-week span at #1. The Crimson Tide kept their blueprint from their past two titles, which is to play shutdown defense (ranked second in the nation), combined with a run game that frustrates opponents (averaging 230 yards and nearly three touchdowns per game). This year, Alabama modified their plan by reducing starting quarterback A.J McCarron pass attempts and replacing them with better looks. This change resulted in McCarron averaging over ten yards per pass attempt (tops in the nation) and an incredible 173.1 passer rating, also first in the nation. Saban and the Tide come into this game trying to win the SEC’s seventh straight title and there third in four years.

Perhaps the most interesting part of this game is how alike these two teams are. Both teams have a dynamic defense that shuts down opponents. Both teams are 50-50 between run and pass plays. Both teams average the same number of turnovers, get around the same amount of penalties, and basically play the same game of football.

However, there are some differences between these two teams that will decide this game.

Alabama has shown they can win against top teams. One could argue Notre Dame can as well, and they are undefeated, but Alabama has an edge here. Notre Dame played four ranked teams, and won by 48 points, an average of 12 point wins over teams like Oklahoma and Michigan State. However, if ignore Alabama’s five point loss to Texas A&M, they played four Top 25 teams and beat them by a combined 67 points. Included in that list were then #5 LSU and #8 Michigan. They showed that their defense isn’t the only thing they need to win (the defense allowed 66 points in those games), which was what their seasons were about during their last two championships.

The big talk these past couple of weeks is about Notre Dame’s goal line defense, which has been referred to 

from a brick wall to a force field. The hype about this defense comes from the Stanford game, where in overtime, clinging to a seven point lead, the Irish stuffed top running back Stepfan Taylor four times in a row to preserve their undefeated season. Their D-line, highly touted, gives up touchdowns just 24% of the time opponents are in the red zone. This is a big problem for Alabama, who against winning teams got in 66% of the time, which means they scored touchdowns two out of every three times, and they’re going against a rock-hard defense that gives up a red zone touchdown once every four times.

Facing a top-ranked defense, it may be rare for Alabama to get a bunch of red zone opportunities, which could be a big factor in this game.

However, this red zone advantage doesn’t just belong to Notre Dame. Alabama has the second lowest opponent red zone conversion rate in the country, ahead of the Irish, at 62.96%, one percent better than Notre Dame. This advantage is somewhat offset when you consider that Alabama gives up a touchdown 46% of the times that they don’t stop their opponent.

One big thing that stands out in this game is the quarterbacks. McCarron, a junior, has a lot of experience. A 22-year old, McCarron has played in two BCS Championship games, won both of them and added a title game Offensive MVP award on his resume. He is a talented player capable of pulling through in the clutch, like he did against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, and as he has done all season. His counterpart, sophomore Everett Golson is the opposite of him. The title game will be just his 13^th of his short career, and he doesn’t have the stats or resume backing him up. McCarron threw for over 2,600 yards while adding 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions, while Golson threw for barely 2,100 and 11 touchdowns, while throwing five picks. The inexperience will show in a pressure situation, and McCarron’s maturity will help the Tide.

Finally, the run game. Both teams balance their game plan pretty evenly, as it’s about 50-50 run and pass. And, yet again, Alabama has the upper hand. Led by the dynamic duo of freshman T.J Yeldon and junior Eddie Lacy, these two combined for 2,182 yards, 27 touchdowns and averaged seven yards a carry, leading Alabama to a very efficient rush offense. The Tide ran for the 20^th most yards a game, 5^th in yards per carry and 13^th in rushing touchdowns. Compared to Notre Dame, whose 27^th in yards per game, 28^th in yards per carry and 45^th in rushing touchdowns, which says a lot. Notre Dame can’t keep up. Their go to backs, Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood, mixed in with all-purpose quarterback Everett Golson, combined for 2,430 yards while averaging just barely five yards a carry. All around, in total yards, Alabama has 2,920 to Notre Dame’s 2,430.

What’s interesting is that the run game could be shut down completely. Alabama has the best-run defense in the country, only giving up 80 yards a game, while Notre Dame is not to far behind. The Irish are 4^th in run defense, giving up just 92 yards a game. Alabama gives up just two yards a carry, so expect to see Riddick and Wood consistently getting stuffed and pushed back, forcing Golson to air it out and use the passing game. Notre Dame gives up about three yards a carry, so it will be a grind it out, slow paced game with a lot of punts if these teams revert to their run games.

Finally, there’s the pass defense. Alabama, again, is up there on, at 6^thnationally, only giving up 166 yards a game, with 17 interceptions this season. The Irish pass defense is also strong, at 20^th in the nation, giving up about 200 yards a game. The Irish, also have a ball-hawking defense with 16 interceptions. However, because of the big difference between these two teams’ quarterbacks, there is a clear advantage for the Tide.

All around, the Tide and the Irish have their strengths and flaws, but one team has more strengths then the other. Alabama has more advantages, and if it wasn’t for their nail-biting loss to the Aggies, they would be at the top of the rankings. Taking all of their advantages, they factor into a win for the Crimson Tide, extending the SEC’s six year title game winning streak another year.

Expect the beginning of this game to be defense-controlled, with no points on the board until the second quarter. Notre Dame will pull ahead 7-3 going into half, and there momentum will carry into the third quarter, which is all Notre Dame. The Irish put ten points on the board to go up 17-3. However, in the fourth quarter, McCarron shows his cool by leading Alabama on three drives, scoring two touchdowns and a field goal. Alabama’s defense comes around in the fourth quarter after digging themselves into a 14-point hole, and shuts out the Irish and their hopes at there first title in 23 years.

Alabama 20, Notre Dame 17

BCS Bowl Games Preview

With the Bowl season upon us, the games are way more competitive, as the best teams in college football duke it out with the whole country watching. The Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and others all get played as build up to the BCS Championship. Each bowl game has a rich history of exciting contests, thrilling endings and heartbreaks. This year includes a rich slate, featuring storied franchises such as Stanford, Wisconsin, Michigan and many more.

Here, in order of most interesting, are the games that will be making an appearance on the national stage come January.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Two weeks ago, Oregon and Kansas State found themselves in the driver’s seat, ready for their assumed championship matchup. Then along came loses to Baylor and Stanford, and they dropped to 4th and 5th, respectively, in the rankings, out of title consideration.

Both teams come into the Fiesta Bowl with 11-1 records, talented quarterbacks, and smart coaches. This game is truly one for the ages, and has become known as the “Poor man’s BCS championship.”

Kansas State’s weapon is the 6’5” offensive force they have in Collin Klein. A Heisman Trophy contender, Klein abused defenses week in and week out on his way to over 2,490 yards passing and another 890 on the ground. He’s combined for 27 touchdowns, earning him nominations for the Walter Camp Award, among others.

The Wildcats would not be where they were if it wasn’t for John Hubert. Hubert, a small guy (listed at 5’7”), has a big impact. Without him taking some carries off Klein’s shoulders, Klein would have less of an impact. Hubert is the perfect man for the job, as he consistently finds the small holes to rack up yardage. He also leaves his mark on the screen game. Hubert finished the season with 974 all-purpose yards and 15 touchdowns, including one where he went for a 95-yard touchdown against Missouri State.

Facing off against the Wildcats is Oregon’s double-headed attack, led by stellar freshman Marcus Mariota, who put up impressive numbers at quarterback. Mariota is joined by senior running back Kenjon Barner, who is just as intimidating.

Mariota, who earned the starting QB position because Darron Thomas’ surprise decision to head to the NFL, proved that he was ready for the task. He’s in the top 5 nationally in completion percentage (69.1%) and quarterback rating (165.4).

Barner, a senior who had a break out year in 2011, continued the trend by leading the third-best rushing team by racking up 1,624 yards on 248 carries with 21 touchdowns, fourth in the nation.

The deciding factor of this game pitting two offensive powerhouses will simply be who scores the most points. What else would one expect from two below-average defenses facing two of the most intimidating offenses in college football?

In the end, Oregon’s slightly better and more talented offense will lead them to a slim, but high-scoring victory. Klein will still show why he’s a Heisman candidate, but it won’t be enough.

Oregon 42, Kansas State 35

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma Sooners

This game is one of the more interesting bowl games this year, but only if you like watching points pile up like they’re going out of style. That’s what to expect when these two teams clash, as both are averaging over 40 points a game, and have two of the best quarterbacks in the nation: Johnny Manziel and Landry Jones.

Texas A&M brings Manziel, their freshman quarterback and winner of the 2012 Heisman Trophy (the first time ever that a freshman has one the award), to the table with stats that look like they’re from a video game. Manziel has flourished in Texas A&M’s Air Raid offense, and his stats prove it. This year, as a true freshman, he’s thrown for 3,419 yards and 24 touchdowns, while adding another 1,181 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground.

His counterpart, Landry Jones, has just as impressive stats. Jones, appearing in his final collegiate game, is more of a passer, having completed 332 of 507 passes this season, a 65% completion rate, for 3,989 yards and 29 touchdowns. He’s not the all-purpose athlete that Manziel is, but his throwing skills have led Oklahoma to the nation’s fifth best passing offense.

The thing that will make this game even higher scoring is when you factor in the defenses. Both defenses are in the Division 1 cellar, allowing a combined 50 points a game. Pit that against the Aggies 45 points a game and the Sooners 40 a game, and it will be a pointathon.

Overall, the Aggies and the way their offense suits Manziel will come out on top, making Jones exit to the NFL a disappointment. It won’t be all that sad, though. Lots of points will be scored, and Jones will pad his stats on his way to the NFL.

Texas A&M 38, Oklahoma 30

Chick-Fil-A Bowl:  LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers

Two 10-2 teams face off in this BCS bowl, but the similarities stop there, as both teams followed totally different paths to this final game of the season.

LSU, led by a stifling defense, ranked 11th in the country, were the preseason #3, just behind Alabama and USC. But, like many other teams in the country, they had to face two talented teams (then #10 Florida and #1 Alabama) that they couldn’t sneak by, losing the two games by just 12 points.

Their defense, captained by safety Eric Reid, gives up just 16.9 points a game, including when they limited the nation’s third best offense (Texas A&M) and its Heisman-winning quarterback (Johnny Manziel) to just 19 points, 25 points below their average.

They now face another big test in Clemson.

Clemson got here in the opposite way LSU did, as they relied on their sixth-ranked offense, scoring over 40 points a game. Clemson, like LSU, faced tough teams and couldn’t pull through in the clutch, losing to then #4 Florida State and #12 South Carolina, by a combined 22 points. It sounds like a lot, but when Clemson is beating teams by 30 points consistently, it’s not.

Three players lead Clemson’s high-flying, talented offense. Quarterback Tajh Boyd starts the fire, leading the 13th ranked passing offense with 3,550 yards passing and 34 touchdowns, while adding almost 500 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. Next, there’s the running game, with Andre Ellington leading the way with 1,031 yards and 8 touchdowns; along with 6’1” DeAndre Hopkins and his 1,214 yards and 16 touchdowns. Given this horsepower, it should be no surprise Clemson is scoring 42.3 points a game.

This game promises to be interesting as both teams have strengths and weaknesses that match up well: Clemson’s talented offense is evenly matched with LSU’s toughness on D, and LSU’s low-scoring offense is matched with Clemson’s below-average defense. The deciding factor of this game will be the team that best leverages its strength. Looking at their respective schedules, its easy to project which team will have the advantage.

Clemson played just two top 25 teams (the perils of being in the ACC), and lost to both of them. All of their other games were against teams like Furman and Ball State, with virtually no hard teams, making it easy for them to have such a high-scoring offense. LSU, on the other side, had a challenge almost every week. They took on five Top 25 teams, and won three of them, including games against South Carolina and Texas A&M.

LSU 28, Clemson 20

Rose Bowl presented by Vizio: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinals

The big finale before the National Championship game is the Rose Bowl. The most watched bowl game; this year’s match up gives good reason to expect another large audience. Stanford, 11-2, comes into the game after an impressive November, including five straight wins over ranked teams, including their knocking off then #2 Oregon, thus shaking up the BCS landscape. They’ll face Wisconsin, 8-5, which enters its third straight Rose Bowl after a convincing win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game. Both of teams have a lot of talent, but only one team really belongs here.

That team is Stanford. Coming off losing an unusually large number of talented players to the NFL (Andrew Luck, David DeCastro and Colby Fleener to name a few), Stanford pushed on and proved why they deserve to be here. Led by Stepfan Taylor, their senior running back who piled up over 1,400 yards, the Cardinal beat talented teams, and their two losses came down to a margin of just seven points. There stifling defense, led by ball-hawking safety Eric Reynolds (six interceptions, ranking him 5th in the nation), gives up just 17 points a game, which ranks 16th overall.

Wisconsin seems to be out of place, as they finished fourth in there conference, only earning a spot in the Big 12 title game because of NCAA penalties. Penn State and Ohio State, both ahead of the Badgers, violated NCAA’s rules and earned postseason suspensions. Wisconsin finished the season going 4-4 in the division and 8-5 overall. Their five losses came to some talented teams, though, as the combined record of there opponents who beat them was 45-16. However, Wisconsin snuck by a lot of teams that they should have soundly beat, and showed that perhaps the only way for them to win games was to run the ball with Montee Ball, the Badger’s All-American running back and 2011 Heisman nominee, who had another great season.

At a glance, this game pits a talented Stanford team against a much weaker Wisconsin, and should be entertaining if you’re a Cardinal fan, as Stanford will hand the Badgers their sixth Rose Bowl loss and third straight.

Stanford 30, Wisconsin 17