BCS National Championship Preview

The 2012 NCAA football season was as interesting and exciting as any other season in recent memory. You had everything, from upsets to incredible plays. You saw a freshman win the Heisman for the first time in history. You watched as the #1 team in the preseason drop out of the top 50 teams in the nation. You got to see the two teams destined to play for the national championship both lose with two weeks left. You even saw a senior take home six of college footballs prestigious awards.

At the end of this chaotic season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Alabama Crimson Tide emerged as the top two teams that will meet in Sun Life Stadium on January 7 to play for the BCS Championship.

Notre Dame, the nation’s #1 team, has come a long way. Under Coach of the Year Brian Kelly, their top-ranked defense led the way to an undefeated 12-0 record and the #1 ranking. Manti Te’o, their defensive savior, took home six awards, including the Walter Camp and Maxwell Awards, earning him the honor of being college football’s best player. Kelly and the Irish come into this game trying to end a 23-year championship drought.

Alabama, which was in the nation’s top five teams for the entire season, including a eight-week span at #1. The Crimson Tide kept their blueprint from their past two titles, which is to play shutdown defense (ranked second in the nation), combined with a run game that frustrates opponents (averaging 230 yards and nearly three touchdowns per game). This year, Alabama modified their plan by reducing starting quarterback A.J McCarron pass attempts and replacing them with better looks. This change resulted in McCarron averaging over ten yards per pass attempt (tops in the nation) and an incredible 173.1 passer rating, also first in the nation. Saban and the Tide come into this game trying to win the SEC’s seventh straight title and there third in four years.

Perhaps the most interesting part of this game is how alike these two teams are. Both teams have a dynamic defense that shuts down opponents. Both teams are 50-50 between run and pass plays. Both teams average the same number of turnovers, get around the same amount of penalties, and basically play the same game of football.

However, there are some differences between these two teams that will decide this game.

Alabama has shown they can win against top teams. One could argue Notre Dame can as well, and they are undefeated, but Alabama has an edge here. Notre Dame played four ranked teams, and won by 48 points, an average of 12 point wins over teams like Oklahoma and Michigan State. However, if ignore Alabama’s five point loss to Texas A&M, they played four Top 25 teams and beat them by a combined 67 points. Included in that list were then #5 LSU and #8 Michigan. They showed that their defense isn’t the only thing they need to win (the defense allowed 66 points in those games), which was what their seasons were about during their last two championships.

The big talk these past couple of weeks is about Notre Dame’s goal line defense, which has been referred to 

from a brick wall to a force field. The hype about this defense comes from the Stanford game, where in overtime, clinging to a seven point lead, the Irish stuffed top running back Stepfan Taylor four times in a row to preserve their undefeated season. Their D-line, highly touted, gives up touchdowns just 24% of the time opponents are in the red zone. This is a big problem for Alabama, who against winning teams got in 66% of the time, which means they scored touchdowns two out of every three times, and they’re going against a rock-hard defense that gives up a red zone touchdown once every four times.

Facing a top-ranked defense, it may be rare for Alabama to get a bunch of red zone opportunities, which could be a big factor in this game.

However, this red zone advantage doesn’t just belong to Notre Dame. Alabama has the second lowest opponent red zone conversion rate in the country, ahead of the Irish, at 62.96%, one percent better than Notre Dame. This advantage is somewhat offset when you consider that Alabama gives up a touchdown 46% of the times that they don’t stop their opponent.

One big thing that stands out in this game is the quarterbacks. McCarron, a junior, has a lot of experience. A 22-year old, McCarron has played in two BCS Championship games, won both of them and added a title game Offensive MVP award on his resume. He is a talented player capable of pulling through in the clutch, like he did against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, and as he has done all season. His counterpart, sophomore Everett Golson is the opposite of him. The title game will be just his 13^th of his short career, and he doesn’t have the stats or resume backing him up. McCarron threw for over 2,600 yards while adding 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions, while Golson threw for barely 2,100 and 11 touchdowns, while throwing five picks. The inexperience will show in a pressure situation, and McCarron’s maturity will help the Tide.

Finally, the run game. Both teams balance their game plan pretty evenly, as it’s about 50-50 run and pass. And, yet again, Alabama has the upper hand. Led by the dynamic duo of freshman T.J Yeldon and junior Eddie Lacy, these two combined for 2,182 yards, 27 touchdowns and averaged seven yards a carry, leading Alabama to a very efficient rush offense. The Tide ran for the 20^th most yards a game, 5^th in yards per carry and 13^th in rushing touchdowns. Compared to Notre Dame, whose 27^th in yards per game, 28^th in yards per carry and 45^th in rushing touchdowns, which says a lot. Notre Dame can’t keep up. Their go to backs, Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood, mixed in with all-purpose quarterback Everett Golson, combined for 2,430 yards while averaging just barely five yards a carry. All around, in total yards, Alabama has 2,920 to Notre Dame’s 2,430.

What’s interesting is that the run game could be shut down completely. Alabama has the best-run defense in the country, only giving up 80 yards a game, while Notre Dame is not to far behind. The Irish are 4^th in run defense, giving up just 92 yards a game. Alabama gives up just two yards a carry, so expect to see Riddick and Wood consistently getting stuffed and pushed back, forcing Golson to air it out and use the passing game. Notre Dame gives up about three yards a carry, so it will be a grind it out, slow paced game with a lot of punts if these teams revert to their run games.

Finally, there’s the pass defense. Alabama, again, is up there on, at 6^thnationally, only giving up 166 yards a game, with 17 interceptions this season. The Irish pass defense is also strong, at 20^th in the nation, giving up about 200 yards a game. The Irish, also have a ball-hawking defense with 16 interceptions. However, because of the big difference between these two teams’ quarterbacks, there is a clear advantage for the Tide.

All around, the Tide and the Irish have their strengths and flaws, but one team has more strengths then the other. Alabama has more advantages, and if it wasn’t for their nail-biting loss to the Aggies, they would be at the top of the rankings. Taking all of their advantages, they factor into a win for the Crimson Tide, extending the SEC’s six year title game winning streak another year.

Expect the beginning of this game to be defense-controlled, with no points on the board until the second quarter. Notre Dame will pull ahead 7-3 going into half, and there momentum will carry into the third quarter, which is all Notre Dame. The Irish put ten points on the board to go up 17-3. However, in the fourth quarter, McCarron shows his cool by leading Alabama on three drives, scoring two touchdowns and a field goal. Alabama’s defense comes around in the fourth quarter after digging themselves into a 14-point hole, and shuts out the Irish and their hopes at there first title in 23 years.

Alabama 20, Notre Dame 17

Rival Week in College Football

It's down to this- the last week of regular season College Football, and the stakes are high. This week has been nicknamed "Rival Week", and there's a good reason for it! Some of the NCAA's biggest rivalries are being continued this week- and they all have a pretty big impact on the BCS landscape.

#1 Notre Dame vs. USC

This rivalry has been around since 1926, and these perennial football powers always put on a show. With 22 titles and 14 Heisman trophies between the two of them, this match up has always been important- but even more this year! This year USC came in as the #1 and Notre Dame was unranked- and now it’s been reversed, as the Fighting Irish had some luck last week. They won, but there outlook looked bleak because they were ranked #3, behind two teams that looked invincible. However, when Oregon and Kansas State were both shocked- South Bend came alive as they are ranked #1 for the first time since 1988.They come into this game as the only undefeated bowl eligible team-while there longtime rival USC is 7-4. USC hasn't met expectations this year- under performing against teams like UCLA and Arizona. Last week they were beat by UCLA- an unranked team. Also during there 38-28 loss, they lost there star senior quarterback Matt Barkley- a loss that will greatly affect there chances against Notre Dame.. I think that without Barkley, USC coach Lane Kiffin is going to have to alter his game plan a lot, as they will be starting red shirt freshman Matt Wittek. He‘s 19 years old, and has talent- Kiffin has even said that he has more arm strength and speed than Barkley. That doesn't mean he’s the next big thing, though- he’s inconsistent and you can tell that he’s young based on the way he plays. For me, the key for USC to win is to get there run game going and take some of the pressure off Wittek- but Manti Te’o and the Fighting Irish will keep that from happening. Notre Dame is hard to score on- there first in the nation because they only give up 10 points a game- and that’s even though they've played teams like Oklahoma, Michigan, Michigan State and Stanford. I think that there killer defense will force Wittek into problems early, Kiffin won’t be able to get his run game going, and Manti Te’o and Notre Dame will be off towards the BCS Championship with a win. Notre Dame 30, USC 21 

#2 Alabama vs. Auburn

The Iron Bowl is one of the best and most hard fought rivalries in all of sports. Started in 1893, there have been over 75 games between the two biggest universities in Alabama. The last three years, the winner of this game has gone and won the BCS Championship- Alabama twice and Auburn once. For the fifth straight year, the Iron Bowl features a team in the national title hunt- the 10-1 Crimson Tide, who control there own fate now. A victory over the 3-8 Tigers would put the Tide in the SEC Championship game against the team right behind them in the rankings- #3 Georgia. That game would be one of the most exciting of the year because it would basically be a semi-final, with the winner inevitably going to the title game. Ever since Alabama fell to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel, they have been crossing there fingers for something big to happen. There wishes came true, as the top two teams fell, leading to a midnight celebration in Tuscaloosa, as they flew up to #2 in the rankings. Now, they’re on the verge of getting to the top for the third time in four years- and there opposition looks easy. Auburn head coach Gene Chizik, the mastermind who in 2010 led them to a BCS Championship is on the verge of being fired- his Tigers are winless in SEC play, and only have 3 wins this year. However, Alabama is not going to be caught off guard, as Nick Saban was talking to the press about the fact that this is a rivalry game, and all previous games get thrown out the window. I don’t think he should be worrying about much- with a top ranked defense and a offense that’s scoring 36 points a game will lead Alabama to a easy win- remember, there’s no holding back in rivalry games! Alabama 45, Auburn 10

#13 Oklahoma vs. #21 Oklahoma State

The Bedlam Game- the inter-state rivalry between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, a rivalry game that dates back all the way to 1904! Oklahoma leads the 108-year old rivalry game with 82 wins to Oklahoma States 17. The Bedlam is continued after last years crazy game, when Oklahoma collapsed and was rolled over by Oklahoma State, 44-10. Now, with both of them in the top 25 again and looking for bowl games, this match up should be interesting. An outright Big 12 title is in play for Oklahoma after Kansas State fell last week, and even Oklahoma State could earn a share of the title. This game is going to be very intriguing with the changes that both teams have been making. First of all, Oklahoma State is borrowing a page out of the Sooners playbook- they unveiled a new game plan- a short-yardage scheme with an alternate quarterback. This will make the game interesting, as neither of these teams can play defense well- and the Cowboys offense has a new attack which will turn this game into a shootout. I think that even though the Cowboys changed there dynamic and it’s a good plan, Oklahoma has more experience at the short-yardage scheme and last week’s Capital One Impact Player of the Week Landry Jones will lift the Sooners to avenge there meltdown last year. Oklahoma 41, Oklahoma State 36

#4 Florida vs. #10 Florida State

This rivalry was ignited in 1958, and it has been going on ever since between the two oldest public universities in the Sunshine State. The game was dominated by powerhouse Florida, who won the first 19 games- but in the last 40 years, it has evened out, with both teams winning 20 games. This year is the first year since 2000 that both teams are in the top 10, and it makes the game very interesting. The Gators, sitting at #4 in the rankings – suddenly have a shot at the title game after winning 3 straight since there loss to Georgia. It won’t make a difference if they can’t find a way to beat the tough #10 Seminoles. The Gators have a chance at getting to the game, they just need to win and put there fate in the opponents of Notre Dame, Alabama and Georgia. However, it will be tough with the Gators struggling offense (only scoring 18 points per game recently) against the Seminoles #1 ranked defense. The Seminoles defense is led by defensive ends Bjoern Warner and Cornellius Carradine, who've combined for 20 sacks. The imposing forces the Seminoles have allow only 236.6 yards a game, tops in the nation, and rank fifth in scoring defense. Florida also has a top defense, ranked third in scoring defense- but they have a tough test in Seminoles quarterback EJ Manuel. He has thrown for 2,785 yards and 20 touchdowns this year, and is a multi-purpose threat. I think that Manuel will help push Florida State over the top- as there defense will shut down Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel and kill the Gators title game hopes. Florida State 28, Florida 21

#5 Oregon vs. #15 Oregon State

The historic Civil War-a game, ranked seventh on the list of most played rivalry games in college football, first originated in 1894.Since the start of the series, Oregon has 59 victories to Oregon States 46 and they've tied 10 times. The last four games have gone to the Ducks high flying offense that took them to two Rose Bowls and a BCS Championship game. This year, the Ducks have just fallen back to earth after being upset by Stanford last week in overtime. They were #1 and just had to win two more games to make it to the BCS championship- and they were shocked by a field goal. Now, they stagger in to face an 8-2 Beavers team who still has a lot to play for. If the Beavers win, they can probably earn an at-large bid in a BCS Bowl Game. Oregon, also have a lot to play for- they still have a outside chance at getting to the BCS Championship- with a whole lot of help from other teams. With an offense ranked #1 in the country, averaging an incredible 54 points a game, last week was a fluke. After spending only 6 days as the #1 team, Oregon is going for more than bragging rights in the 2012 edition of the Civil War. If they can win, they need some things to fall in there favor. A USC win would be helpful, but what they really need is for Florida, Georgia and Alabama to all lose- and then they would be set to play in there second championship in two years. Oregon State, on the other side, is coming off a big win against California. They gained 559 yards to win 62-14. This year, the civil war is one of the most exciting rivalry games because both teams are talented and good. I think that Oregon has the edge, and there high-flying offense is so effective and devastating that the Beavers are going to be pushed up and down the field. The Beavers have a decent offense, led by quarterback Sean Mannion- but I think the Ducks are just too good for the Beavers. Oregon 40, Oregon State 28

#19 Michigan vs. Ohio State

The Game is always a big deal- it dates back to 1935 and ESPN even rated it as the greatest North American sports rivalry, but this year the stakes are as high as 2006. In 2006, they were ranked 1-2 and carried 11-0 records, which Ohio State came out on top, 42-39, on there way to a place in the BCS championship.. This year, the Buckeyes are trying to finish off a 12-0 season, while Michigan frantically needs a win in hopes of catching Nebraska and keeping there BCS at-large hopes alive. The Buckeye’s have been completely turned around by Urban Meyer. Head Coach Urban Meyer makes his first appearance in this intense rivalry, but he knows fierce competition, coming from the Florida-FSU rivalry he coached in. His team, 11-0 coming into this game, has ridden the incredible talent of multi-purpose quarterback Braxton Miller. Miller is one of my favorite quarterbacks to watch in college football- he's efficient, fast, strong, accurate and can flat out play. He has thrown for 1850 yards and also leads the team in rushing with 1200 yards on the ground this season. He's also thrown 14 touchdowns and ran for 13- a total of 26 touchdowns in 11 games. On the other side of things, Michigan comes in with a dilemma. The past three games, junior Devin Gardner has been starting in place of hurt senior Denard Robinson. He’s flourished as a starter, throwing for 834 yards and 7 touchdowns while adding 105 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Michigan head coach Brady Hoke in a press conference said with a straight face that when asked if Robinson would start, he said he didn't know. I think that Hoke isn't saying anything because he might be trying to keep there possible game plan with lining up Robinson as a back or receiver a secret until The Game rolls around. The Buckeyes Meyer said in a statement that they were playing conservative against Wisconsin and that they were going to let it out against Michigan in The Game- and with Braxton Miller as the quarterback that could be big. In my opinion, both of these teams are very talented but I think that Ohio State is better because of Millers talent and Meyer’s skill. I think that Ohio State will win; finishes undefeated and look forward to next year when they are just as talented and still bowl eligible. Ohio State 34, Michigan 24

#24 Arizona vs. Arizona State

The Territorial Cup. The Duel in the Desert. Whatever you want to call it, this match up between Arizona and Arizona State is one of the oldest rivalry games in NCAA football, and is even recognized by the NCAA as an official trophy. Started in 1899, Arizona leads the overall series 47-37-1. This year, there’s not much at stake other than bragging rights because of where the teams are. Both teams, led by new coaches (Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez), are already in the playoffs and neither of them have a shot at the Pac-12 title. Both teams have strengths and weaknesses, making this game very close. Arizona’s trump card is Ka’Deem Carey, the nations leading rusher- who has been an unstoppable force coming from the backfield and should be a mismatch issue for the Sun Devils. However, ASU also has a way to slow down Carey- one of the best defensive lineman in the country, Will Sutton. Head coach Todd Graham has confidence in his defense after holding Washington State to 1 rushing yard, but he says he’s definitely going to be a tough match up and they've been preparing for him. I think Graham and Arizona State are decent, but I think with the way Careys been playing, he will be hard to stop and will lead Arizona to a close victory over the Sun Devils. Arizona 38, Arizona State 35