The 2012 NCAA football season was
as interesting and exciting as any other season in recent memory. You had
everything, from upsets to incredible plays. You saw a freshman win the Heisman
for the first time in history. You watched as the #1 team in the preseason drop
out of the top 50 teams in the nation. You got to see the two teams destined to
play for the national championship both lose with two weeks left. You even saw
a senior take home six of college footballs prestigious awards.
At the end of this chaotic
season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Alabama Crimson Tide emerged as
the top two teams that will meet in Sun Life Stadium on January 7 to play for
the BCS Championship.
Notre Dame, the nation’s #1 team,
has come a long way. Under Coach of the Year Brian Kelly, their top-ranked
defense led the way to an undefeated 12-0 record and the #1 ranking. Manti
Te’o, their defensive savior, took home six awards, including the Walter Camp and
Maxwell Awards, earning him the honor of being college football’s best player.
Kelly and the Irish come into this game trying to end a 23-year championship
drought.
Alabama, which was in the nation’s
top five teams for the entire season, including a eight-week span at #1. The
Crimson Tide kept their blueprint from their past two titles, which is to play
shutdown defense (ranked second in the nation), combined with a run game that
frustrates opponents (averaging 230 yards and nearly three touchdowns per
game). This year, Alabama modified their plan by reducing starting quarterback
A.J McCarron pass attempts and replacing them with better looks. This change
resulted in McCarron averaging over ten yards per pass attempt (tops in the
nation) and an incredible 173.1 passer rating, also first in the nation. Saban
and the Tide come into this game trying to win the SEC’s seventh straight title
and there third in four years.
Perhaps the most interesting part
of this game is how alike these two teams are. Both teams have a dynamic
defense that shuts down opponents. Both teams are 50-50 between run and pass
plays. Both teams average the same number of turnovers, get around the same
amount of penalties, and basically play the same game of football.
However, there are some differences
between these two teams that will decide this game.
Alabama has shown they can win
against top teams. One could argue Notre Dame can as well, and they are
undefeated, but Alabama has an edge here. Notre Dame played four ranked teams,
and won by 48 points, an average of 12 point wins over teams like Oklahoma and
Michigan State. However, if ignore Alabama’s five point loss to Texas A&M, they
played four Top 25 teams and beat them by a combined 67 points. Included in
that list were then #5 LSU and #8 Michigan. They showed that their defense
isn’t the only thing they need to win (the defense allowed 66 points in those
games), which was what their seasons were about during their last two
championships.
The big talk these past couple of
weeks is about Notre Dame’s goal line defense, which has been referred to
from a
brick wall to a force field. The hype about this defense comes from the
Stanford game, where in overtime, clinging to a seven point lead, the Irish
stuffed top running back Stepfan Taylor four times in a row to preserve their
undefeated season. Their D-line, highly touted, gives up touchdowns just 24% of
the time opponents are in the red zone. This is a big problem for Alabama, who
against winning teams got in 66% of the time, which means they scored
touchdowns two out of every three times, and they’re going against a rock-hard
defense that gives up a red zone touchdown once every four times.
Facing a top-ranked defense, it may
be rare for Alabama to get a bunch of red zone opportunities, which could be a
big factor in this game.
However, this red zone advantage
doesn’t just belong to Notre Dame. Alabama has the second lowest opponent red
zone conversion rate in the country, ahead of the Irish, at 62.96%, one percent
better than Notre Dame. This advantage is somewhat offset when you consider
that Alabama gives up a touchdown 46% of the times that they don’t stop their
opponent.
One big thing that stands out in
this game is the quarterbacks. McCarron, a junior, has a lot of experience. A
22-year old, McCarron has played in two BCS Championship games, won both of
them and added a title game Offensive MVP award on his resume. He is a talented
player capable of pulling through in the clutch, like he did against Georgia in
the SEC Championship game, and as he has done all season. His counterpart,
sophomore Everett Golson is the opposite of him. The title game will be just
his 13th of his short career, and he doesn’t have the stats or
resume backing him up. McCarron threw for over 2,600 yards while adding 26
touchdowns and just three interceptions, while Golson threw for barely 2,100
and 11 touchdowns, while throwing five picks. The inexperience will show in a
pressure situation, and McCarron’s maturity will help the Tide.
Finally, the run game. Both teams
balance their game plan pretty evenly, as it’s about 50-50 run and pass. And,
yet again, Alabama has the upper hand. Led by the dynamic duo of freshman T.J
Yeldon and junior Eddie Lacy, these two combined for 2,182 yards, 27 touchdowns
and averaged seven yards a carry, leading Alabama to a very efficient rush
offense. The Tide ran for the 20th most yards a game, 5th
in yards per carry and 13th in rushing touchdowns. Compared to Notre
Dame, whose 27th in yards per game, 28th in yards per
carry and 45th in rushing touchdowns, which says a lot. Notre Dame
can’t keep up. Their go to backs, Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood, mixed in with
all-purpose quarterback Everett Golson, combined for 2,430 yards while
averaging just barely five yards a carry. All around, in total yards, Alabama
has 2,920 to Notre Dame’s 2,430.
What’s interesting is that the
run game could be shut down completely. Alabama has the best-run defense in the
country, only giving up 80 yards a game, while Notre Dame is not to far behind.
The Irish are 4th in run defense, giving up just 92 yards a game.
Alabama gives up just two yards a carry, so expect to see Riddick and Wood
consistently getting stuffed and pushed back, forcing Golson to air it out and
use the passing game. Notre Dame gives up about three yards a carry, so it will
be a grind it out, slow paced game with a lot of punts if these teams revert to
their run games.
Finally, there’s the pass
defense. Alabama, again, is up there on, at 6thnationally, only giving
up 166 yards a game, with 17 interceptions this season. The Irish pass defense
is also strong, at 20th in the nation, giving up about 200 yards a
game. The Irish, also have a ball-hawking defense with 16 interceptions.
However, because of the big difference between these two teams’ quarterbacks, there
is a clear advantage for the Tide.
All around, the Tide and the
Irish have their strengths and flaws, but one team has more strengths then the
other. Alabama has more advantages, and if it wasn’t for their nail-biting loss
to the Aggies, they would be at the top of the rankings. Taking all of their
advantages, they factor into a win for the Crimson Tide, extending the SEC’s
six year title game winning streak another year.
Expect the beginning of this game
to be defense-controlled, with no points on the board until the second quarter.
Notre Dame will pull ahead 7-3 going into half, and there momentum will carry
into the third quarter, which is all Notre Dame. The Irish put ten points on
the board to go up 17-3. However, in the fourth quarter, McCarron shows his
cool by leading Alabama on three drives, scoring two touchdowns and a field
goal. Alabama’s defense comes around in the fourth quarter after digging
themselves into a 14-point hole, and shuts out the Irish and their hopes at
there first title in 23 years.
Alabama 20, Notre Dame 17
