Sunday, August 4, 2013

First Round Preview: Holyoke vs. Keene

#1 Keene Swamp Bats (27-17) vs. #4 Holyoke Blue Sox (21-23)
Sunday: Alumni Field

Monday: MacKenzie Stadium
Tuesday (if needed): Alumni Field

Series Possibilities (top three pitchers from each team)
Keene/Holyoke
Brett Graves vs. Evan Hill
Brett Lilek vs. James Bourque
James Mulry vs. Nick Poore


Keene Swamp Bats (No. 1 Western seed)
Record: 27-17. Manager: Kevin Winterowd  Home Field: Alumni Field
Season In A Nutshell: It's not every day you get to see a team start a season 3-11, write them off and then watch them finish 24-6 and earn the #1 seed. Arguably some of the best hitting in the league to go along with solid pitching has completely turned them around. Winterowd didn't get to manage the All-Star game because they were in second, but right around that break the Swamp Bats regained first place and hung onto it, finishing three up on Vermont.
Who’s Hot (Last 10 Games):
• OF Robbie Cafiero (.609, 14H, 2HR, 6RBI in 23 AB)
• INF Zach Lucas (.344, 11H, 4R in 32 AB)
• P Nathan Kirby (1-0, 13.1IP, 0.00ERA, 15K)
Hitting
Keene is year in and year out a good hitting team, and its no different this year. The Swamp Bats lead the league with a .277 batting average, including three hitters over .330. They also take first with 35 home runs, though playing at Alumni Field does help those numbers. Regardless, the Swamp Bats have a deep hitting (six players over .280) and multiple power threats.
Power
As mentioned above, playing at Alumni Field does help as 35 home runs leads the league by three. The Swamp Bats have a lot of players who can hit the ball deep, but none more prominent than the trio of Brian O'Grady, Zach Lauricella and Zach Lucas. Combined, the three of them have hit 16 home runs, a little less than half the team. 
Speed
Third to last in stolen bases with 49 as a team, the Swamp Bats have a couple 5-steal kind of guys, but only one base-stealing threat that stands out. JP Sportman has swiped 12 bases, but has been caught five times. Keene isn't necessarily the fastest team out there, but when they're hitting doubles and home runs, all they have to do is run home.
Defense
The Swamp Bats have the third best fielding percentage with a .965 mark, and have committed just 58 errors, also third. They don't have any players near the top of the fielding leaderboards by position, but as a whole are a talented defensive squad.
Starting Pitching
Keene once again is third in a category, with a 2.87 team ERA, a full 24 points ahead of Vermont, their divisional rival. Three starters have thrown 7+ starts, forming one of the best trio's of starting pitching in the league. Nathan Kirby, Brian Hunter and David Scosbee combine for a 2.38 ERA and a 10-4 record over 126 innings pitched. Not a weakness for the Swamp Bats, their pitching also leads the league in strikeouts with 399.
Bullpen
Two words. Matthew Clancy. In 14 appearances out of the pen for Keene, Clancy has a 1.95 ERA and is 5-0 over 32 innings pitched. However, the bullpen is a lot more deep than just Clancy. Paul Covelle, James Connell and John Birckbeck provide the foundation for a lockdown bullpen. The trio of relievers combines for nine saves over 36 appearances. In fact, Keene is so good at holding leads that in the 7th, when pitchers usually leave, if Keene has a lead, the Swamp Bats are 24-2.
Outlook
This team has some scary hitters, and even nastier pitchers. They may have started off badly, but they are the best team in the Western Division and have the pieces to go late into August- good starting pitching, an even better bullpen, potent hitting and good fielding. They don't have a lot of flaws, which makes the Swamp Bats a scary team to face.

Holyoke Blue Sox (No. 4 Western Seed)
Record: 21-23. Manager: Darryl Morhardt  Home Field: MacKenzie Stadium
Season In A Nutshell: Powering their way to a 7-1 play in game against Saratoga, the Blue Sox fell apart for a stretch and ended up with Danbury near the bottom of the league. A quick turnaround over the last week earned them an opportunity against Saratoga, which they flew by to get into the first round.
Who’s Hot (Last 10 Games):
• SS Matt Reida (.368, 7H, 3R in 19 AB)
• INF Brendan Hendriks (.351, 13H, 4R, 4RBI in 37 AB)
• P Bryan Goossens (2-0, 10.1IP, 0.90 ERA, 5K)
Hitting
Near the middle of the pack in hitting with a .248 team batting average, the Blue Sox do have two of the best hitters in the league. Infielder Brendan Hendriks (.342) and outfielder Jacob Bruce (.325) are the threats to opposing pitchers, with the lineup structured around them. Other talented hitters are scattered around the lineup, but none have excelled this summer as well as these two.
Power
The Blue Sox lack power. They have three guys who've hit two, but thats pretty much the extent of it. Vahn Bozoian may have put on a show in the first round of the NEBCL Home Run Derby, but they've hit just seven as a team. Bozoian hit more than that in the first round.
Speed
Once again, not one of their stronger traits. The Blue Sox have swiped 54 bases, which puts them around 10th in the league. Like most teams, they have two base stealing threats in the forms of Matt Reida (11) and Jacob Bruce (10). Not many other base stealers, as the remaining 32 stolen bases are scattered in sets of two and three across the roster.
Defense
I'm repeating myself, but defense isn't one of their strengths. A .956 fielding percentage puts them third to last, and they've commited 74 errors in 45 games, tied for second to last as well. They do gun out nearly 30% of runners trying to steal on them, as well as turning 42 double plays but they're sub-par overall.
Starting Pitching
Second in the league in ERA with a 2.78 mark, the Blue Sox have arguably the best starting pitcher in the league, Michael Burke. Burke is 3-1 with a 0.55 ERA over 65 innings pitched and has struck out 56 hitters. He's not the only solid starter, as Henry Van Zant (4-4, 2.52 ERA) and Jordan Hillyer (5-3, 2.46 ERA) form a talented trio. They've thrown seven complete games between them, as well as a pair of shutouts. Overall, Holyoke has nine complete games and three shutouts, both marks which lead the league.
Bullpen
Unlike bullpens like Keene and Newport, they don't have guys who've made 10+ apperances. In face, a majority of their relievers have made starts, with just five who haven't. Basically, the Blue Sox relievers double as starters, making them some of the best pitching in the league.
Outlook
Holyoke snuck into the playoffs because of good pitching and timely hitting. In the playoffs, anything can happen so keys for them are to have the pitching do what its done all summer (complete games) and have the hitting produce enough run support to go farther into August.

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