Prospect Retrospective: AJ Pollock

AJ Pollock swings in a 2013 game for the Diamondbacks. /AP

If it was not for a Johnny Cueto fastball that ran up and in on a check swing, AJ Pollock might have spent the All-Star break in Minnesota as a member of the national league all-stars, instead of rehabbing from a broken hand. Pollock was enjoying an career year, hitting .316 and ranking near the league-leaders in WAR before going down. 

As everyone knows, Pollock was a member of the 2007 Vermont Mountaineers. I wrote a feature on here discussing the majors, but I've decided to dig into his minor league career and the ups and downs he faced. Pollock has an interesting story, so here goes. 

Pollock hit .372/.464/.474 as a freshman at Notre Dame and came to Vermont, where he earned 10th man honors. He returned to South Bend for another productive year (.352/.414/.505) before taking the prestigious Cape Cod League by storm and earning league MVP honors. He caught the Diamondbacks attention and was taken 17th overall after a strong junior season.

He didn't go anywhere, staying in Notre Dame as the Diamondbacks Rookie league affiliate was located in South Bend. Here's his Baseball America scouting report after his 2009 season where he hit .271 in 63 games and was ranked Arizona's third top prospect.

Pollock with Falmouth /CCBL

"Pollock's best tool is his bat, and his bat speed, strong hands and line-drive approach should allow him to hit for high average. He has gap power, slightly above-average speed and good instincts on the bases. He's a quality defender with an average arm in center field. In addition to his all-around athleticism, he also has strong makeup. Some scouts take a glass-half-empty view and say Pollock doesn't do anything particularly well beyond hit. He showed a tendency to get out on his front foot during the spring at Notre Dame, but he has a calmer approach with wood bats. His swing can get flat at times, limiting his power. Pollock projects as a solid major league leadoff hitter and center fielder, mostly because he knows how to affect games with his skill set. He could start 2010 in Double-A and will certainly get there at some point during the season. He's on the fast track to Arizona." -BA

A freak injury during a spring training fielding drill required shoulder surgery and set him on the sidelines for the entire 2010 season, derailing him from the fast track to the majors. Baseball America dropped him to their No. 6 Diamondbacks prospect.

"He spent his downtime working on conditioning, especially strengthening his lower half, before returning to play in instructional league and the Arizona Fall League. Other than his bat, Pollock may not have a plus tool, but he has well-rounded skills and instincts that let him play above his physical ability. He uses his quick hands to stroke line drives from gap to gap. He won't have big-time power but could develop into a 15-homer threat. His speed is slightly above average and he runs the bases well. Pollock reads balls well and covers a lot of ground in center field, and he had an average arm before he hurt his elbow. Pollock projects as a solid big league regular or at least a quality fourth outfielder on a contender. He was on the fast track prior to his injury, so he could jump to Double-A to begin 2011." -BA

Pollock with Mobile in 2011. /Mobile

Pollock returned in 2011 with Double-A Mobile and hit .307 in 133 games with 71 RBIs and was ranked the Southern League's No. 14 prospect. He moved up to the Diamondbacks No. 5 prospect after leading Mobile to the championship.

"He looked as good as ever when he returned in 2011, leading the Southern League in runs (103) and hits (169) while helping Mobile to the championship. Pollock's total package is greater than the sum of its parts. First and foremost, he's a blue-collar player with great makeup and excellent instincts in all phases of the game. He's a line-drive, gap-to-gap hitter who squares balls up consistently and produces lots of doubles. He could develop 15-homer power once he gets stronger. He makes contact so easily that it hampers his ability to draw walks. Though he has just average speed, Pollock is the system's best baserunner and stole 36 bases in 43 tries in 2011. He's solid defensively at all three outfield positions, making good reads in center field and displaying an average arm. Pollock is ready for a move to Triple-A in 2012 and could fill a need at the big league level at some point in the season. Though some scouts see him as a fourth outfielder because he isn't loaded with plus tools, the Diamondbacks envision him becoming a solid regular." -BA

Pollock with Reno. /Reno

He then hit .318 in Reno, a minor league high for him and earned a callup for 31 games. He hit just .247 with 11 strikeouts but added eight runs and eight RBIs. He dropped to the No. 10 prospect by BA.

"The Diamondbacks expected Pollock to move quickly after signing him for $1.4 million as the 17th overall pick in 2009, but he missed the following season when he fractured a growth plate in his right elbow during spring training. He has made up for lost time by batting .312 in the upper minors during the last two seasons and getting three separate big league callups in 2012. Pollock’s total package is more than the sum of its parts, with only his bat and makeup grading better than average. He’s a gap-to-gap hitter who makes reliable contact but has yet to develop much over-the-fence power. The ball does come off his bat well, so Arizona believes he will eventually produce 10-15 homers per year. Pollock makes the most of his average speed, running the bases well and showing annual 20-steal potential. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions, getting good reads and displaying an average arm that’s enough to handle right field. Scouts are split on Pollock, with some seeing him as a solid regular in center field and others thinking he profiles best as a fourth outfielder. The Diamondbacks have no shortage of starting outfield candidates in Adam Eaton, Jason Kubel, Gerardo Parra and Justin Upton, so Pollock will have to settle for a reserve role in 2013." -BA

Pollock came back in 2013 and hit .269 in his rookie season, earning a spot on Baseball America's All-Rookie team. One of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, Pollock was off to a scorching start at the plate as well in 2014. He had a slash line of .316/.366/.554 through 52 games and made the Diamondbacks feel comfortable after trading away fellow rookie Adam Eaton to the White Sox.

Arizona manager Kirk Gibson hinted at the start of a rehab assignment in early August. He successfully underwent surgery at the start of June.

Field of 64: Preseason Picks

Preseason All-American Mike Papi leads a powerful Virginia team,
 my pick to win it all. Photo from VirginiaSports.com

For the first time in what will most likely be a weekly thing, I'm going to project what the NCAA tournament will look like based on what's happened in the season. This first one is rather unofficial, seeing as no games have been played, but it's a start. (Preseason BA rankings in parentheses)

On the brink: Alabama (21), Arkansas (25), Miami (16), Rice (15), Texas (18), Texas Christian/TCU (19)
Super Regionals: UCLA (12), Clemson (13), Florida (23), Indiana (3), Louisiana State (9), Louisiana-Lafayette (14), Mississippi State (8), North Carolina (17)

College World Series: Cal State Fullerton (3), Florida State (4), North Carolina State (5), Oregon (11), Oregon State (2), South Carolina (7), Vanderbilt (10), Virginia (1)

Not much stats or results to base this list on, but these eight teams are the premier teams in the country, the ones heading to Omaha.  I have Virginia and Oregon State moving on, but the other six teams have legitimate chances at a title as well. Indiana has one of the most talented, complete and experienced team in the nation...Cal State Fullerton has a superb pitching staff and a lineup anchored by two potential All-Americans...NC State has the best position player and the best pitcher in the nation...Florida State is deep, balanced and experienced...South Carolina is the team to beat in the SEC and are gritty and talented....Vanderbilt has the advantage in close games with impressive bullpen depth to back up a young lineup....Oregon has an elite pitching staff and is built to win.


Championship Series: Virginia and Oregon State

There are a lot of different opinions on the top two teams in D-I, from Cal State Fullerton at the top to even NC State on some lists. However, in my opinion, the top two are Virginia and Oregon State. Virginia is my preseason pick to win it all, but Oregon State is very tough as well. The Beavers have arguably the deepest pitching staff in the nation and have a strong lineup as well.

National Champion: Virginia

I mentioned this in my previous article but this is one of the most experienced teams in D-I. The Cavaliers have seven juniors and Baseball America puts them at 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale when it comes to hitting. There pitching isn't shabby either with three solid starters. Virginia is a serious threat for the national championship- and we'll have to see as the season goes on.

College Baseball Preview Part 1: Preseason Rankings

Baseball America and USA Today differ in the rankings, with BA putting Virginia first while the latter has Cal State Fullerton as the preseason top dog. I decided to go over the top five teams on these lists to give a brief preview.

VIRGINIA (BA #1, USA #6)

Brandon Waddell (Photo by Tony Farlow)

There were six Cavaliers in the NECBL last season, including three on my hometown Mountaineers. Baseball America puts two of them as starters, headlined by Kenny Towns at third base and Nathan Kirby in the rotation. Virginia looks really solid as they're deep, balanced and talented and have seven juniors. They have a formidable center of the lineup with Mike Papi, Derek Fisher and 2013 freshmen all-american Joe McCarthy. They have a roster filled with guys in their second-years on the team and with one of the most stable, experienced coaching staffs, Virginia is poised to make a run.

OREGON STATE (BA #2, USA #3)

Andrew Moore

The Beavers strength lie in their pitching. Andrew Moore was a first-team All-American as a freshman after going 14-2 with a 1.79 ERA. He has a four-pitch mix including a 87-93 MPH fastball. His sophomore sidekick Ben Wetzler is just as tough to face. Wetzler went 10-1 with a 2.25 ERA as a member of the deepest pitching staff in the nation. The Beavers offense isn't too shabby either, anchored by juniors Michael Conforto and Dylan Davis. Conforto is an elite hitter while Davis features massive raw power. Oregon State has strong pitching and two beasts in the lineup make for the chance at a third national title for the Beavers.

INDIANA (BA #3, USA #11)

Dustin DeMuth (Photo by Andrew Woolley)

Once again, several Hoosiers found there way to the NECBL this past summer. Scott Donley and Nick Ramos were Mountaineers and now are key components of the Hoosiers lineup. Donley is a line-drive machine and hit .358 last year. He's joined by Ramos and Dustin Demuth in an elite lineup. With the exception of Aaron Slegers, last years Big Ten pitcher of the year, the Hoosiers return a solid rotation. Senior Joey DeNato (10-2, 2.52 last season) and Kyle Hart lead an all-lefty staff. Most of Indiana's College World Series team returns and forms a talented and experienced squad that are a major player in the race for a title.

CAL STATE FULLERTON (BA #4, USA #1)

Thomas Eshelman (Photo by Larry Goren)

The Titans have a less-potent offense after losing four main components but they still have considerable talent. A trio of juniors- Matt Chapman, Clay Williamson and Austin Diemer- lead the way. The lineup focuses on Chapman and JD Davis, who combined for 87 RBIs last year. The pitching is really where the Titans step up. Thomas Esheleman (12-3, 1.48 last year), Justin Garza (12-0, 2.03) and Grahamm Wiest (9-3, 3.27) form a talented rotation. Freshman Phil Bickford, the No. 10 overall pick, wasn't even included in BA's list as he's a midweek starter despite having an explosive 96 MPH fastball. They finished the No. 10 team last year after being outplayed by UCLA in the super regionals- and haven't made it to the CWS since 2009. This could be the year to break that drought.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE (BA #5, USA #9)

Jake Fincher (Photo by Andrew Woolley)

The Wolfpack are headlined by one of the nation's top players, Trea Turner. He hit .368 as a sophomore with 42 RBIs and 30 stolen bases and gets this offense started. Turner is joined by talented center fielder Jake Fincher, who hit .313 last year and added 29 RBIs. Three new starters join the lineup with a pair of freshman and a transfer, but the core remains. The rotation is talented as well, headlined by Carlos Rodon who went 10-3 with a 2.99 ERA last season. He struck out 184 batters in 132 innings as he has a strong fastball, an even better slider and a strong changeup. Rodon and Turner lead this competitive Wolfpack squad who have a shot at ending the ACC's six-decade national title drought.

NEXT TEN (BA's rankings)
6. Florida State
7. South Carolina
8. Mississippi State
9. Louisiana State
10. Vanderbilt
11. Oregon
12. UCLA
13. Clemson
14. Louisiana-Lafayette
15. Rice