Prospect Update: Jantzen Witte

Witte in Greenville. (Drive Photo)

Instead of going over every single former Mountaineer and giving you their stats in one overwhelming piece, I've decided to single out one every couple of days and provide some notes and analysis. The first edition of this covers a Mountaineer in 2009 and 2010, Jantzen Witte.

Jantzen Witte, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Level: Advanced A    Age: 24    Drafted: 24th Rd
Line: 65 PA, .300/.358/.467, 8 XBH, 8.33 BB%, 11.67 K%

Summary: After hitting just .161 in 2013 across short season Lowell and rookie league GCL, Witte has begun to hit the ball exceptionally well, and hasn't seen his average dip below .300 this season. He dominated in Class-A Greenville, hitting .330 and was named a Midseason All-Star, which earned a promotion to Advanced-A Salem.

Notes: His current batting average, .300, is higher then it was a senior at Texas Christian University (TCU). His BB/K ratio is the highest it's been in affiliated baseball, but he has struggled in strikeouts. His strikeout percentage is almost nine percentage points higher then it was in college at an alarming 18%, but it's come as he's developed his power. His isolated slugging percentages have increased from .098 in the Rookie league to .223 for Greenville in Class A, a sign that his power output has increased significantly. He's been able to hit both ways with ease.

Against top prospects: He has faced several top prospects throughout the year, and hasn't fared well. He went 0-2 against the Washington Nationals top prospect, Lucas Giolito, who's the 36th overall prospect on MLB's Top 100 list. Witte also went 0-3 against Kansas City Royals No. 5, Miguel Almonte.

Moving forward: The Boston Red Sox Double-A affiliate, the Portland Sea Dogs, have a more then capable third basemen- third round draft pick Sean Coyle. Coyle is hitting .355 this year for the Sea Dogs with 11 home runs and 47 RBIs. Triple-A Pawtucket has the Red Sox's 4th overall prospect, Garin Cecchini, so it doesn't look like Witte will advance. Expect him to finish the year in Salem.

2014 Stats:

Through June: 2014 Mountaineers vs. their championship seasons

The 2006 team was led by Curt Smith. (TA Photo)

As the fourth of July approaches and almost 50% of the Vermont Mountaineers season is done, it's interesting to see where the franchise was at in their previous champion seasons. The 2014 Mountaineers lead the Northern Division by a game with 12 wins, a mark that ranks second in the league.

After losing the 2005 championship to the Newport Gulls, Vermont bounced back in 2006. They downed the now-defunct Torrington Twisters to pick up their first title and grabbed another in quick succession in a rematch with the Gulls.

Each of those teams had unique strengths and weaknesses. The 2006 team featured four all-star starters and finished a NECBL best 27-15, while the 2007 team went 24-18 and won as a two-seed. Regardless, here's a comparison of each of these teams.

                                 July 3 2006          July 3 2007           July 3 2014    
Record                  13-7 1st place           10-10 4th place       12-7 1st place      

Standings                   +2 up                    -3 out                         +0.5 up               

Runs scored         107 5.35/game         72  3.60/game            95  5.00/game        

Runs against        70 3.50/game           92 4.60/game            58  3.05/game       

Final record              27-15                        24-18                  projected 22-20*     

*pace based on FiveThirtyEight regressed winning percentage

The thing that jumps out at first is just how dominant the 2014 pitching has been already. They're allowing just three runs a game, which is the best mark through June out of any of the three years.

However, the 2014 offense hasn't been quite as dominant this season compared to the 2006 team.

The 2006 Mountaineers were loaded from top to bottom and won the most games in franchise history, with 27. Curt Smith (.323, 20 stolen bases, 26 runs), Troy Krider (.317, 22 runs) and Zach Zaneski (.309, 20 RBIs) formed a lethal core. The 2007 team snuck into the playoffs despite sitting three games out of first and in a tie for fourth place at the start of the July. 

Out of these three teams, surprisingly the 2014 team is in a tie for the lead in run differential. Bill James Pythagorean Expectation puts them at a 14-5 record, a mark that would put Vermont 2 1/2 games up on second place Sanford.

The 2006 team had the most success heading into July with a half game advantage on this years Mountaineers- but keep an eye on this years team. Manager Joe Brown and his talented pitching and deep bench could bring home the first Vermont title in seven years.