Mountaineers slow start in rear view mirror

Slade Heggen is a late pick-up for Vermont who's hitting .270 in 14 games. The Mountaineers have turned it
around rapidly, using a 9-4 record at home to vault into contention in the North.

Rob Neyer wrote last year about the Mets that there’s an important lesson we’ve never learned, no matter how many players and teams try to teach us: Whatever you think you KNOW about baseball, there’s a pretty good chance you’ll be wrong. No team better exemplifies this then the Vermont Mountaineers of far this season.

A few weeks ago, the defending champions were off to 2-11 and an air of pessimism surrounded the team. They couldn’t come up with timely hitting, the defense was horrendous, and the bullpen coughed up lead after lead. What happened in the start of June -- a seven-game losing streak, a league-worst fielding percentage -- only made their campaign to defend a title seem incredibly unlikely.

Then things started happening. They started winning. The defense has slowly began to avoid costly mistakes, backing a pitching staff that has emerged as the divisions best. The hitting has exploded, totaling 15 and 16 runs in blowouts just a week apart. They have several MVP candidates and are starting two players in the NECBL All-Star Game. They’re not in last.

If the Mountaineers win tonight, too, they’ll have won nine straight at home and eight of their last 10. They’ll move to just three games under .500, and in peak form as they approach the All-Star break. With torrid hitting and strong pitching, the question to ask is...Can the Mountaineers keep this going?

The easy answer is, of course they can.

At the start of the summer, Vermont had plenty of holes in their lineup. They couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position, and it seemed that hitters five through nine were almost always outs. Today, they boast an offense that is second in the league in average and features four All-Stars as well as a player who was arguably snubbed of a spot.

Pitching guru Joe Brown has a staff that he’s mixed and matched, moving players between starting roles and relief outings at a dizzying pace that has resulted in a well-rested, balanced pitching staff. Just one pitcher has thrown over 20 innings at this point in the season, and that’s Final Vote candidate Jonathan Stiever. Every pitcher Brown throws never labors through outings, they’re efficient and have settled in. In a league like the NECBL, with grueling stretches, Brown’s approach has resulted in a team ERA over 3.42, best in the North.

Reading this, you would expect a team much better then a 10-14 record. Vermont has a plus-16 run differential, second in the division. An early-season losing streak and struggles on the road put them in this place, as they’re just 1-10 away from Recreation Field. In front of a loud home crowd, the Mountaineers are 9-4, a .692 winning percentage that’s second in the league.

Unfortunately for Vermont, they can’t play all 44 games at the spacious Recreation Field, where they’re hitting .297 and average over seven runs a game. They’ve taken advantage of this homestand, though, and just need to improve away from home to make the move into first in the division.

It’s a big step to take for a team that started the year nine games under .500, but with Brown, one of the winningest college coaches in history, it’s to be expected. To get to the All-Star break and earn three days off, Vermont has to play five games in four days, all against divisional opponents.

It’s a huge stretch, simply put. Three of those games are against rival Upper Valley (10-15), including a doubleheader on Thursday. The Nighthawks have sunk below Vermont in the standings, so it will be a battle to stay out of the cellar. The three-game series is bookended by matchups against Keene and Winnipesaukee, two teams who played last night for sole possession of first place, with the Muskrats winning.

With a incredible level of parity in the division, the Mountaineers are easily in contention. Like Neyer said, the Mountaineers are a great lesson in not assuming a team’s fate until it’s actually been decided.