13. Vermont Mountaineers (3-12, minus-26 run differential)
Coming off of their third championship in franchise history and back-to-back divisional titles, Vermont's limped to a 3-12 record out of the gate. They celebrated Opening Day with a eighth-inning rally to beat newcomer Upper Valley, 2-0, but the postgame fireworks were one of a few things Mountaineers fans have had to cheer about lately. Losing streaks of seven and four games have seen them drop 12 of their first 15 games, positioning them four games out of a playoff spot already.Signs of life from the offense are there, but they're still struggling to score runs. Averaging just 3.5 a game, Vermont's shaky defense has let teams back into games when they don't have the run support to overcome. Defensively, the Mountaineers lead the league with 33 errors and rank last in fielding percentage (.941). How bad is that? The per-game average of 2.2 errors would be the highest in the Pointstreak Era (2010-present), while the fielding percentage would be the lowest. That's a historically bad defense that the Mountaineers are putting out there every night, and it's costing them. They've allowed 25 unearned runs through 15 games, a hopefully unsustainable trend.
We're at the quarter pole in the NECBL season, and Vermont needs to find their sea legs. Over the past three years, 15 teams across both divisions have wrapped up the first month under .500. They have four games left in June, and at this pace, they'll end the first month at 4-15. Out of those 15 teams mentioned above, seven finished the first month with five or fewer wins -- and just one qualified for the playoffs.
That team was the 2013 Keene Swamp Bats, who went a shaky 3-11 the first month, then rattled off a 23-5 month of July to win the Northern Division. The Swamp Bats would go on to win the NECBL title, dispatching the Mountaineers in the divisional finals along the way. The results from the other six teams are much ugly. Just one of the remaining six finished remotely close to .500, with the 2013 New Bedford Bay Sox finishing at 20-24.
Excuse the pessimistic outlook, but it’s easy to say -- history is against the Mountaineers. An improved defense and better hitting with runners in scoring position is all the team needs to figure out.
12. New Bedford Bay Sox (4-9, minus-16)
11. Sanford Mainers (7-8, minus-16)
A pair of teams with woeful offenses come in the next two slots. New Bedford has only played 13 games to Sanford's 15, so I'll single out the Mainers. Sanford's dropped a pair of games and sits just below .500, but unless they find a spark in their offense, it will be a quiet season for a team just removed from a divisional finals appearance.Sanford has the fifth-best pitching staff in the league, but have a team batting average just eight points from the Mendoza line. They don't have a batter hitting over .300 in their lineup, and are just .173 (26-for-150) with runners in scoring position, a mark over 30 points lower then the next team. They've been held to one run in three of their past four games, and they're hitting just .191 over the past five games. I could list off plenty of stats that show the slump they're in, but I'll spare you. After starting the year 3-1, Sanford's had trouble stringing together wins. With a strong group of arms, the Mainers are in a similar place as the last-place Mountaineers. If they can piece together a strong lineup, they'll be back in contention. The advantage they have on Vermont? They've managed to stay around .500, and sit in a three-way tie for the fourth playoff spot in the North.
10. Plymouth Pilgrims (6-9, minus-2)
9. Newport Gulls (7-8, minus-1)
The Gulls, surprisingly, are in the middle of the Southern Division pack. The main reason for this? A shaky pitching staff. Newport ranks last in the NECBL in ERA (4.50), a stunning statistic when you consider the past few years. Here's where the Gulls pitching has ranked in various measures over the last six years.ERA: 4th, 9th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st,
WHIP: 4th, 8th, 2nd, 7th, 2nd, 1st
Strikeouts: 4th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, 3rd
The staple of the Gulls has been overpowering pitching, and there's signs of that this year -- they lead the league in strikeouts by a wide margin -- but they're below .500 because the pitching hasn't clicked yet. Newport's 1-4 over their last five games for two reasons. First, the pitching has allowed 38 earned runs for a 5.82 ERA, causing them to drop to the bottom of the rankings. Secondly, the offense is hitting just .170, and a barely more impressive .211 over the past 10 games. It's a strange sight to see the perennial contenders a middle-of-the-pack team, but that's where they are through a quarter of the season.
8. Winnipesaukee Muskrats (7-8, minus-4)
7. Danbury Westerners (8-9, minus-6)
6. Upper Valley Nighthawks (7-8, plus-8)
The league's newest franchise sits a game below .500, despite looking like a strong contender in the North. The Nighthawks lead the league in average (.279) and slugging (.413) by healthy margins, rank second in fielding percentage (.976) and have a strong pitching staff that sits sixth in ERA (3.74). So why are they a sub-.500 team?It's a difficult question to answer. “I expect us to play better, be more consistent,” Upper Valley manager Nick Cenatiempo told the Valley News' Josh Weinreb. “Defensively we’ve been great. … I think, offensively, we’re going to get better. We need to keep playing, it’s coming along. I’ve told you before, I’m still waiting for someone in this bullpen to take ownership of that back-end role.”
The on-and-off play from the Nighthawks was summed up by assistant coach Matt Lynch, “I think they’re pressing a little bit. For the most part, we have a lot of kids that want to be good players. We have a lot of good players, and they just want to get the job done.Most games we play, we’re the team that’s crushing the ball more than the other,” he added. “They want to be that guy. I tell them sometimes a walk or a hit-by-pitch or a bloop single, you don’t have to be this Superman, home-run hitting machine. Just do the job.”
With plenty of potential, it'll be interesting to see if the Nighthawks can shake out of the back-and-forth start to the season they've had.
5. Mystic Schooners (8-7, plus-3)
4. Keene Swamp Bats (10-5, minus-4)
What a season it's been for the Swamp Bats. They sit atop the Northern Division, but all signs indicate it's an inflated record. Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation, which adjusts winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed, pegs them as a 7-8 team. They're 3-0 in one-run games and 6-1 in two-run games, so nine of their 10 wins have been narrow victories. Keene is 10th in ERA (4.07) and ninth in average (.235), and somehow sit five games above .500 with a minus-four run differential.What does this mean for the rest of the season? Keene's won two in a row, but there's a pair of teams in the Northern Division on three-game winning streaks that are sure to pass them eventually. North Adams and Valley are both more well-rounded teams, so it won't be a surprise if the Swamp Bats end up mired in the fight for the final two playoff spots in the division.
3. North Adams SteepleCats (10-6, plus-21)
2. Valley Blue Sox (9-5, plus-22)
1. Ocean State Waves (11-3, plus-21)
Ocean State is showing no signs of slowing down, and they're very deserving of the top spot in these rankings. The Waves, owners of a dominant pitching staff and capable offense, are easily the most well-rounded team in the NECBL. They lead the league with a 2.34 ERA, 82 points lower than the second-place mark. They have a team average of .265, good for second, and also rank third in fielding percentage.The bullpen has been incredible -- the Waves are 10-1 when leading after five, and a perfect 11-0 after seven innings with the lead. They've been getting it done with ease through the first three weeks, and are 8-2 over their last 10 games as well. They've beat up on nearby divisional foes Newport and Plymouth, beating them three and four times, respectively. With incredible pitching, the Waves are a formidable matchup and easily claim the No. 1 ranking.
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