2016 NECBL Preview: Art of the Steal

A Mountaineer swipes second base during the 2014 season. Roger Crowley photo

At the start of the 2016 season, the Mountaineers are searching for a fourth straight appearance in the divisional finals and a second straight championship, all coming under the watchful eye of manager Joe Brown. Last season, Vermont was one of the top pitching teams in the league (3rd in ERA, 1st in BAA), but it was a different trend that lifted them to the cream of the crop. That particular brand of baseball? Aggressiveness on the basepaths.

Offensively, Vermont was a strong hitting team- fifth in team average- but they made the most of their chances. Look at this graph, for instance. This shows every NECBL teams number of stolen bases against their stolen base percentage over the past six years. Mountaineers seasons are highlighted in white.

The 2015 team swiped 100 bases, only the fourth team over the past six seasons to do so, and did it at an almost 80% success rate. Vermont’s success on the basepaths is only a continuation of prior seasons, as the Mountaineers of 2011 and 2012 broke the 100-stolen base mark also. Those two years ended in disappointment, but Brown’s management in 2015 lifted them to a championship.

They swiped 17 bases in the postseason, seven more than the Southern Division champion Mystic Schooners. It’s worth looking at the significance of these thefts, as they had seven in the championship series alone. In the decisive 10-inning win in Game 3, Vermont had five stolen bases.

One specific play that was huge at the time was a double steal. Holding on to a 1-0 lead in the fifth, Nick Ruppert was on first and Jack Parenty stood on second with two outs. They both took off, and Mystic catcher Lou Iannotti’s throw to third sailed by, allowing Parenty to hop up and score. At the time, it increased Vermont’s win expectancy by almost 11 percentage points, from 63.86% to 74.59%.

Manufacturing runs like that was evident throughout the year. They went on to win Game 3 via a squeeze bunt in the top of the tenth inning, and it was that type of productive smallball that gave them a championship. Of course, stolen bases don’t guarantee success. The Laconia Muskrats finished last in stolen base percentage (60.6%), two percentage points behind the Newport Gulls. Both teams made the postseason.

Looking at the Mountaineers success last season, what does that mean for this year? Going through their 2016 roster, two names jump out. Eastern Michigan infielder David Lett was a perfect 12-of-12 this spring, while Le Moyne outfielder Donanto DiNorcia has swiped 50 of 61 over his three years with the Dolphins. It'll be interesting to see if Brown and his new crop of players can top last season's mark of 100.