Crowded Northern Division: Playoff Odds

With just five games separating the division's contenders and pretenders, the Northern Division race is coming down to the wire. The NECBL undergoes constant turnover, but it's normally a safe bet to pick the Keene Swamp Bats to win the division- since 2009, they've finished first in the North/West all but once.

However, this summer, something unpredictable happened. Keene is absolutely awful. Already eliminated from the postseason with just nine wins and a miserable .243 winning percentage, the Swamp Bats are eight-and-a-half games out of fifth place and have already secured their worst season in franchise history and just the second losing season all time.

Parity has emerged, as it's likely the title won't be clinched until the last few days of the season. Vermont holds a two-and-a-half game lead on first, looking for their second consecutive division title, but nothing's decided yet. The five games separating teams one through five make it the closest division race (absent Keene) in NECBL history, as I wrote about in my competitive balance piece.

So out of the five teams, how is the playoff picture shaping up? Vermont has already clinched a playoff spot.

	Current W-L	Division Title %	Total Playoff %
Vermont Mountaineers	23-15	92%	100%
Sanford Mainers	20-17	5%	48%
Laconia Muskrats	21-18	2%	48%
Valley Blue Sox	18-19	0%	28%
North Adams SteepleCats	18-20	0%	19%

It's interesting to look at, as after Vermont the playoff odds are very similar. Sanford and Laconia have advantages while Valley and North Adams will fight for the last spot. It will definitely be an interesting race to the end, as Vermont meets the Mainers twice in the last three days of the summer.