NECBL Power Rankings: Gulls lead the pack

Three days. Somehow, that's all that is left of the NECBL regular season. Two months have flown by, as this is my last regular season edition of my power rankings. The Newport Gulls are No. 1 yet again in this week's rankings, firmly securing the top spot with a league-high 26 wins. However, they haven't clinched the Southern Division thanks to a late push from the Mystic Schooners, while the Vermont Mountaineers meanwhile have a firm hold and can clinch their second consecutive Northern Division title tonight.

However, the rest of both divisions are dead heats. Just three games separate teams two through five, while the battle for the final three spots in the South comes down to 2 1/2 games. Head to head, this has been fun, and both will come down to the wire. After the first three teams, these rankings were near impossible to determine.

Just as a note, please feel free to contact me with comments either on Twitter (@bradleysmart15) or via email: bsmart17@student.u32.org

1. Newport Gulls (26-12) - (1)

The defending NECBL champs pieced together an eight-game winning streak that ended a few days ago to reach 25 wins for an unprecedented 15th straight season. Even without first-half ace James Karinchak, the Gulls still have a 3.20 ERA in July (2nd) while going 15-5.

2. Mystic Schooners (25-15) 2 (4)
Newport hasn't clinched yet thanks to Mystic, who've heated up and are on a five-game winning streak. The Schooners, leading the league in ERA (2.53) by 70 points, have won seven of 10 and sit just two games out of first place. The bullpen is among the leagues best, as they're 21-1 when leading after seven.

3. Vermont Mountaineers (24-15) 1 (2)
Vermont technically dropped a spot in this weeks rankings, but that's due to playing one less game. They can clinch the Northern Division title for the second consecutive season tonight against Sanford, so home-field advantage through the first two rounds is in store. A seven-game winning streak helped.

4. New Bedford Bay Sox (21-19) 5 (9)
A 5-1 stretch has vaulted the Bay Sox into third place into the Southern Division as they've won six of 10. En route to their first winning season since 2012, New Bedford climbed five spots after beating the likes of Ocean State, Vermont and Mystic.

5. Sanford Mainers (21-18) - (5)
Sanford didn't move in the last week or so after going 4-3, but it was enough to pull a half game up on Laconia for the second playoff spot and home field advantage in the first round. However, they place Vermont twice in the next few days and could easily be passed by Laconia.

6. Laconia Muskrats (21-19) 3 (3)
After conceding first place in the North last week to Vermont, Laconia has continued to fall. Losing Braxton Martinez and James Davision hasn't helped, as the Muskrats offense scored just 3.2 runs per game (.227 team average) and went 3-7 over their last 10 games.

7. Ocean State Waves (19-19) - (7)
The Waves didn't move for the second straight week as they are the only .500 team in the league after dropping back-to-back games. They were recently leapfrogged by New Bedford and now sit in fourth with the last playoff spot, but hold a 1 1/2-game lead.

8. Plymouth Pilgrims (18-21) 2 (10)
Winners of two straight, including a 3-2 win over first-place Newport, Plymouth sits just 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Meanwhile, triple-crown candidate Brent Rooker leads the league in home runs (9) and RBIs (31) but sits 18 points behind the leader in average.

9. North Adams SteepleCats (19-21) 1 (8)
Valley practically gave the SteepleCats a playoff spot, as North Adams has gone 5-5 over their past 10 games while the Blue Sox plummeted. They're hitting just .235 as a team (11th) and have a pitching staff that is ninth in ERA. Still, they hold a half-game advantage in fourth.

10. Valley Blue Sox (18-21) 4 (6)
Valley is trending sharply downward, as they're on a four-game skid that has dropped them out of a playoff spot in the North. Only a half-game out of fourth, the season obviously isn't over, but the Blue Sox are just 2-8 over their last 10 games and rank near the bottom of the league in both average and ERA.

11. Danbury Westerners (12-27) - (11)
After going 1-7 in the past week, any hope that Danbury could extend a four-game winning streak was quickly dashed. The Westerners are en route to a third consecutive season with less then 20 wins and have had sub-.500 records in more then half of their 21-year old existence.

12. Keene Swamp Bats (11-28) - (12)
Well, not much to be said here. Keene has already set a franchise high for losses by four games, and there is still three games left in the season. The championship season of 2013 seems like ages ago, as they've gone a combined 32-49 the past two years.

Crowded Northern Division: Playoff Odds

With just five games separating the division's contenders and pretenders, the Northern Division race is coming down to the wire. The NECBL undergoes constant turnover, but it's normally a safe bet to pick the Keene Swamp Bats to win the division- since 2009, they've finished first in the North/West all but once.

However, this summer, something unpredictable happened. Keene is absolutely awful. Already eliminated from the postseason with just nine wins and a miserable .243 winning percentage, the Swamp Bats are eight-and-a-half games out of fifth place and have already secured their worst season in franchise history and just the second losing season all time.

Parity has emerged, as it's likely the title won't be clinched until the last few days of the season. Vermont holds a two-and-a-half game lead on first, looking for their second consecutive division title, but nothing's decided yet. The five games separating teams one through five make it the closest division race (absent Keene) in NECBL history, as I wrote about in my competitive balance piece.

So out of the five teams, how is the playoff picture shaping up? Vermont has already clinched a playoff spot.

	Current W-L	Division Title %	Total Playoff %
Vermont Mountaineers	23-15	92%	100%
Sanford Mainers	20-17	5%	48%
Laconia Muskrats	21-18	2%	48%
Valley Blue Sox	18-19	0%	28%
North Adams SteepleCats	18-20	0%	19%

It's interesting to look at, as after Vermont the playoff odds are very similar. Sanford and Laconia have advantages while Valley and North Adams will fight for the last spot. It will definitely be an interesting race to the end, as Vermont meets the Mainers twice in the last three days of the summer.

NECBL Power Rankings: Gulls vault into first

There hasn't been that much action since I last came out with my power rankings, as the All-Star Game was washed out in Sanford and many players enjoyed a three-day break. However, competitive baseball is back, and Week Six of my rankings saw a new No. 1- Southern Division leading Newport, with Northern's top team, Vermont, right on their tail. A rematch of the 2009, 2007 and 2005 championships could be in store.

1. Newport Gulls (21-11)  2 (3)
Newport blew past the Schooners with a three-game winning streak and sit atop the NECBL with 21 wins and are on pace for at least a 25-win season for the 15th consecutive year. The Gulls lead the league in average (.279) and are fourth in ERA (3.43). A fourth straight finals appearance is possible.

2. Vermont Mountaineers (20-13)  2 (4)
Winners of five straight and eight of ten, the Mountaineers are the hottest team in the NECBL and rapidly rising. They have a 25 1/3 scoreless innings streak after shutting out Keene twice and have a one-game lead in the North as they look to win the division for a second straight year.

3. Laconia Muskrats (20-14)  1 (2)
In a huge matchup with Vermont last week, Laconia came up short and fell 5-4, surrendering first place in the North. Boasting one of the league's best offenses, the Muskrats have struggled in close games, going just 3-7 in one-run games. They're also a middle-of-the-pack 8-7 in July.

4. Mystic Schooners (20-13)  3 (1)
Mystic dropped three spots from first place over the past week, going 2-2. Like I said last week, the nine-game winning streak at the beginning of the season is the reason the Schooners are still this high up. They've gone just 11-12 since then.

5. Sanford Mainers (17-15) - (5)
Sanford has dropped back-to-back games but still are one of the hotter teams in the league. Winners of six of ten, the Mainers have a dangerous offense and an above-average pitching staff that makes this team contenders. Dalton Thomas is working on a 14-game hitting streak.

6. Valley Blue Sox (17-16) - (6)
Valley, who briefly led the North earlier this year, now sits in fourth and are on the verge of falling out of a spot in the postseason. The Blue Sox lost to North Adams last night and now hold just a one-game lead on the SteepleCats for fourth place.

7. Ocean State Waves (16-15) - (7)
No change for the Waves, who've struggled over the past week. They've dropped seven of ten and are on a two-game skid, but still hold a 1 1/2 game lead over fourth place New Bedford. Tim Lynch won the Home Run Derby with 18 total over two rounds on Sunday.

8. North Adams SteepleCats (17-18)  1 (9)
The SteepleCats rose a spot in this week's rankings due to the teams behind them struggling. North Adams, who went 2-2 since the last edition, sits just a game out of the final playoff spot in the Northern Divison. They picked up a big win against Valley last night to move closer.

9. New Bedford Bay Sox (16-18)  1 (8)
4-1 against fifth place Plymouth, New Bedford is clinging to the fourth playoff spot in the South by a game. Two games under .500, the Bay Sox have dropped six of 10 and BaseRuns estimators put them at a 14-20 record instead- easy pickings in the first round of the playoffs.

10. Plymouth Pilgrims (14-18) - (10)
Brent Rooker is enjoying an MVP-caliber season for the Pilgrims, who haven't gained or fell in the past week after going .500. Rooker boasts a slash line of .371/.416/.629 and currently leads the league in average and RBIs and has the potential for the first Triple Crown.

11. Danbury Westerners (11-20)  1 (12)
The Westerners beat New Bedford and Mystic in the last week, putting together a four-game winning streak while also winning seven of their last 10. Danbury is 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot in the Southern Division, but the Bay Sox continue to fall.

12. Keene Swamp Bats (8-24)  1 (11)
Currently on a six-game losing streak, the league's perennial contender has just been awful. Hitting just .224 as a team, the Swamp Bats are on pace for their first losing season since 2010 and just their third in franchise history.

Competitive Balance in the NECBL

A few years ago, Matthew Namee of Bill James Online came up with the index of competitive balance. Devised to measure how balanced major league baseball currently is and how it's evolved over time, I decided to apply it to the NECBL.

Namee's formula is very simple, as for each league/year, he subtracted each team’s winning percentage from .500; then, he took the absolute value of that number and multiplied it by 1000. Here's the 2012 Northern Division.

Team	Pct.	Score
Newport	.756	256
New Bedford	.595	95
Laconia	.415	85
Sanford	.366	134
Mystic	.225	275

You then calculate the average score, which, in this case, was 169. That is the division's Competitive Balance Score or CBS. Theoretically, a perfectly balanced division/league would be zero, and a totally imbalanced league would score at 500. Of course, those extremes would never happen as every year in NECBL history has scored from 58 to 133.  At 169, the 2012 Southern Division was the most imbalanced division in league history.

On the contrary, the most balanced division in the NECBL's 21-year history was the 2013 Northern Division. This was a league that was decided on the last week of the season, as just 5 1-2 games separated teams one through four.

Team	Pct.	Score
Keene	.614	114
Vermont	.545	45
North Adams	.500	0
Holyoke	.489	11
Saratoga	.467	33
Danbury	.395	105

There is no visible trend over time, as the league has alternated between balanced years and very imbalanced years. Here's a look at the average CBS scores over time.

2014	111
2013	60
2012	127
2011	127
2010	87
2009	108
2008	104
2007	76
2006	109
2005	83
2004	70
2003	120
2002	119
2001	105
1999	129
1998	109
1997	58
1996	122
1995	76
1994	133

As you can tell, it's gone up and down. There's a good bit of year-to-year variation, but it can be broken up into ERAs. From 2011-12, the league had two of it's most unbalanced seasons while the stretch from 1998-2003 was very similar. Here's a chart of the year-by-year outlook.

This year, the NECBL is dropping again. Even with bottom-feeders Danbury and Keene pushing up the score, the league is currently on pace for their second-lowest season in the past five years. The Northern Division is currently at 79, but the top five teams, removing 8-22 Keene from the picture, are just 48.

As always, thanks for reading. Feel free to drop a comment with your thoughts below, and reach out to me on Twitter @bradleysmart15.

First place at stake for Muskrats, Mountaineers tonight

SNHU's Tim Viehoff starts the NECBL
All-Star Game for the North.

The Mountaineers and Muskrats square off for the first time in a week, and much has happened since that meeting. Laconia has dropped three of four but still sit atop the Northern Division, while Vermont has surged with five wins during a week-long stretch of games.

They enter tonight's game just a half-game behind the first-place Muskrats, as the sixth and final matchup between these two teams will decide who will lead the division moving forward.

That was then

The two rivals faced off on just the third game of the season, and a five-hit day from Thomas Roulis paired with excellent pitching powered Vermont to a 5-1 win. However, both teams went in different directions. The Mountaineers hovered around .500 up until the start of July while Laconia was the first team to 17 wins and built a big lead in the division.

The Muskrats swept three straight meetings in the middle of the season with Vermont by a combined score of 26-10, taking a resounding 3-1 lead in the season series.

This is now

Vermont responded very well to a weeklong stretch of games, winning five of seven- including wins over Laconia and Southern Division leading Newport. They've overcome a two-game skid and are 8-4 to open July, appearing to play their best baseball of the season.

Meanwhile, the Muskrats have dropped three of four but still hold a half-game lead on Vermont in the division. Offensively, they are in the top three in the NECBL in runs scored (153), home runs (19), RBIs (127), OBP (.349) and OPS (.736).

Returning stars

Dartmouth's Thomas Roulis leads the NECBL
in batting average for Vermont. /Dartmouth Sports

One reason for Vermont's success has been the play of NECBL veterans Casey Brown and Roulis. Roulis has been sidelined with a nagging injury the past week, but he has somehow improved on his All-Star season with Plymouth in 2014 by returning to lead the league in average (.467).

Likewise, Brown, a SteepleCat in 2013, has posted career-best numbers as a member of the talented Mountaineers pitching staff. An All-Star, Brown is 3-1 with a 1.10 ERA while limiting opposing batters to just a .208 clip.

Another returnee has stood out for Laconia as well- third baseman Braxton Martinez. After a temporary contract at the Cape, Martinez has picked up right where he left off in 2014. The two-time All-Star is one of seven Muskrats hitters who are traveling to Sanford for this year's midsummer classic.

Lowlights

A 2-5 skid near the end of June, including a three-game losing streak, knocked the Mountaineers below .500. It took two weeks to get back over .500, as they alternated wins and losses in a frustrating manner.

Laconia also struggled as June wound down, dropping four straight but responded well. They've hit a rough patch lately as well, losers of three of their last four games.

Highlights

Vermont took three of four during their last homestand, showcasing resiliency after falling behind early in their last two wins. The pitching carried the Mountaineers through much of June, but the bats have come alive late. The middle infield duo of Garrett Copeland and Roulis were also named starters for the North All-Star team.

Two four-game winning streaks, as well as a five-game stretch, has allowed Laconia to hold on to first place for much of the summer. Having eight players named to the All-Star game, including the starting pitcher in Tim Viehoff, is another highlight. It's a hard lineup to face.

Scenario

It's very simple. If the Mountaineers win and beat Keene tomorrow, they'll enter the All-Star break on a four-game winning streak and in sole possession of first place in the Northern Division by a half-game at the very least.

A Laconia victory would knock Vermont back, and the Muskrats would most likely keep hold of the No. 1 spot entering Sunday's All-Star Game. They play Sanford tomorrow in a must-win game as well but are just 1-2 against the Mainers this summer.

NECBL Power Rankings: Schooners cling to first spot

In Week Five of my NECBL Power Rankings, the Mystic Schooners held on to the top spot with a pair of wins to close out the week, ranking first for the third consecutive week. However, divisional foe Newport and Northern Division leading Laconia are right on their heels. Meanwhile, the Muskrats are clinging to a one-game lead over Vermont and Sanford in the North, both who've piled up seven wins in July.

Stay tuned for an All-Star break edition, where I'll run down strength of schedule, award candiates and more in one big piece.

1. Mystic Schooners (18-11) - (1)

Mystic's grip on first place was tenuous this week, as they are tied with Newport for the best record in the league. However, the Schooners have won two straight, including a big win over Vermont. A nine-game winning streak at the start of this summer is what's holding Mystic atop the division, as they've gone an unspectacular 9-10 since then.

2. Laconia Muskrats (18-13) - (2)

A two-game losing streak knocked the Muskrats back, as they were positioned to overtake the top spot. Laconia has played the most games in the league (31), but still manages to lead the NECBL with almost five runs scored per game. Offensively, they're unmatched and also have a solid pitching staff that ranks first in strikeouts.

3. Newport Gulls (18-11) - (3)

After trailing Mystic for much of this summer, Newport pulled into a tie for first in the South after going 4-2 on the strength of a 1.85 ERA over the last week. The Gulls, a perennial powerhouse, rank second in the league in average and recently had a league-high nine players- including three pitchers- named to the All-Star game.

4. Vermont Mountaineers (16-13)  2 (6)

I wrote a column last week describing the Mountaineers as 'maddening', and they've alternated wins and losses their past four games since then. Still, they're tied for second and just a game out of first in the North. A league-high 59 errors has cost Vermont, but they rank third in ERA and average and are 3-1 against Sanford should a tiebreaker arise.

5. Sanford Mainers (15-12)  2 (7)

Tied for the league-high with seven wins in July, Sanford is heating up at the right time. The Mainers have won four straight to jump from sitting a game below .500 into a tie for second place in the North. They've struggled against Vermont (1-3) and Laconia (1-2) but are in prime position to compete for the divisional title.

6. Valley Blue Sox (15-13)  1 (5)

The Blue Sox have dropped four spots in the last two weeks, going a mediocre 4-6. After briefly leading the North, Valley has fallen all the way to fourth but still have a comfortable 1 1-2 game lead over fifth place North Adams. A league-worst 5.20 ERA in July has made it hard to gain any ground.

7. Ocean State Waves (15-13)  3 (4)

Ocean State has also dropped four spots over the past two weeks, going just 5-6 after piecing together winning streaks of five and four games. They're still in the hunt for the divisional title as they sit just 2 1-2 games out of first in the South and are 4-1 against the first place Schooners, but have taken back-to-back losses.

8. New Bedford Bay Sox (15-14)  1 (9)

New Bedford has relied heavily on strong pitching but haven't had the offense to support them. They rank second in the NECBL with a 3.12 ERA but are hitting just .228 and rank ninth in runs scored and 10th in OPS. An offensive improvement could turn the Bay Sox into contenders, but until then, moving past the first round is unlikely.

9. North Adams SteepleCats (15-16)  1 (8)


The SteepleCats have tumbled four spots in the last two weeks, going 2-4 this past week to fall out of a playoff spot in the North. 1 1-2 games out of fourth-place Valley, North Adams outlook doesn't look great. They are near the bottom of the league in average (.228) and ERA (3.79) and are just 9-12 against divisional foes.

10. Plymouth Pilgrims (11-16)  1 (11)


Plymouth has opened July a league-worst 3-8, tumbling from .500 to three games out of the fourth and final playoff spot in the Southern Division. The Pilgrims, who led the league in wins last summer, have resorted to their 2013 ways- a season where they finished 15-28. With just a 6% chance to slip into the playoffs, the season is already almost over.

11. Keene Swamp Bats (8-19)  1 (10)

Keene has opened July with a 4-3 record, but the damage done during an awful June is too much to overcome in a competitive Northern Division. 6 1-2 games out of the fourth spot, the Swamp Bats have a lot of work to do. Still, with 15 games left, Keene could salvage an uncharacteristically bad season. Their batting average is up 70 points from June.

12. Danbury Westerners (7-20) - (12)

Unsurprisingly, Danbury is the worst team in the league, featuring the worst winning percentage (.259) and BaseRuns differential (-62). But, after winning just three games all of June, the Westerners have gone 4-5 in June. Seven games out of a playoff spot, Danbury would need to win all of their games moving forward to even have a shot.