Thursday, July 3, 2014

Through June: 2014 Mountaineers vs. their championship seasons


Stefan Hard/Times Argus
Vermont's Curt Smith singles against Concord on a bunt in the eighth inning of Tuesday's game at the Montpelier Recreation Field.
The 2006 team was led by Curt Smith. (TA Photo)
As the fourth of July approaches and almost 50% of the Vermont Mountaineers season is done, it's interesting to see where the franchise was at in their previous champion seasons. The 2014 Mountaineers lead the Northern Division by a game with 12 wins, a mark that ranks second in the league.

After losing the 2005 championship to the Newport Gulls, Vermont bounced back in 2006. They downed the now-defunct Torrington Twisters to pick up their first title and grabbed another in quick succession in a rematch with the Gulls.

Each of those teams had unique strengths and weaknesses. The 2006 team featured four all-star starters and finished a NECBL best 27-15, while the 2007 team went 24-18 and won as a two-seed. Regardless, here's a comparison of each of these teams.

                                 July 3 2006          July 3 2007           July 3 2014    
Record 
                 13-7 1st place           10-10 4th place       12-7 1st place      
Standings                   +2 up                    -3 out                         +0.5 up               
Runs scored         107 5.35/game         72  3.60/game            95  5.00/game        
Runs against        70 3.50/game           92 4.60/game            58  3.05/game       
Final record              27-15                        24-18                  projected 22-20*     

*pace based on FiveThirtyEight regressed winning percentage

The thing that jumps out at first is just how dominant the 2014 pitching has been already. They're allowing just three runs a game, which is the best mark through June out of any of the three years.

However, the 2014 offense hasn't been quite as dominant this season compared to the 2006 team.

The 2006 Mountaineers were loaded from top to bottom and won the most games in franchise history, with 27. Curt Smith (.323, 20 stolen bases, 26 runs), Troy Krider (.317, 22 runs) and Zach Zaneski (.309, 20 RBIs) formed a lethal core. The 2007 team snuck into the playoffs despite sitting three games out of first and in a tie for fourth place at the start of the July. 

Out of these three teams, surprisingly the 2014 team is in a tie for the lead in run differential. Bill James Pythagorean Expectation puts them at a 14-5 record, a mark that would put Vermont 2 1/2 games up on second place Sanford.

The 2006 team had the most success heading into July with a half game advantage on this years Mountaineers- but keep an eye on this years team. Manager Joe Brown and his talented pitching and deep bench could bring home the first Vermont title in seven years.

2 comments:

  1. Great article. So far, the depth of this years team looks like it might preclude any one player from having a Curt Smith type season. But combined with the strong pitching, that depth will hopefully be a strength and a buffer against the inevitable late-season attrition in collegiate summer baseball. Thanks for the article.

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    1. I agree. I don't see any player being able to break a Mountaineer offensive record because of the constantly changing lineup, but I definitely agree that the depth is a valuable resource. Thanks for reading!

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