SEC Championship Preview - Alabama v. Georgia

Technically, college football’s four-team playoff isn’t supposed to start until 2014, but the SEC decided to get a jump on it.

This weekend, the SEC Championship, featuring the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs, is basically a one-game playoff to get to the title game. With the two teams carrying identical 11-1 records and occupying the #2 and #3 spots in the BCS rankings, this conference championship game could not be more important. With the winner playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the BCS National Championship, perhaps the most relevant question is, “Which team will let the other team score the least?”

Alabama’s defense is ranked 1^st in the country. Georgia’s is not far behind at 16^th. On paper, this game should be a low scoring trench war, much like Alabama’s 9-6 loss to LSU last season. However, both defenses have an arduous task ahead of them. They’ll be facing two offenses ranked 15^th (Alabama) and 17^th (Georgia) in the country, which score a combined 77 points a game.

Alabama’s high-paced offense, scoring 39 points a game, comes into this game with some big issues.

Its talented receiving corps is depleted, as deep threat Kenny Bell broke his leg during Alabama’s 49-0 pounding of Auburn and leaves junior quarterback AJ McCarron with fewer options. McCarron has proved that he can come through in the clutch, noting his exceptional performance as a sophomore. However, when he faced two of the top defenses this year there was a noticeable drop in his performance.

McCarron’s completion percentage against the 11^th ranked and 12^th ranked defenses (Michigan and LSU, respectively) dropped from 71% in Alabama’s 10 other games to just 52%. In there only loss to Texas A&M, he threw two interceptions against a Aggie defense that only sent four pass rushers on 70% of McCarron’s drop backs. This defensive formation forced him to throw into double coverage, which resulted in the only interceptions he threw all year. Georgia would be smart to follow Texas A&M’s example and leverage its own talented defensive backs.

On the other side of the field, Alabama’s defense also has some key areas to exploit against Georgia’s 38-points-a-game offense. Against then 6^th-ranked South Carolina (Georgia’s only loss of the season), the Gamecocks defense exposed some flaws that Saban and the Tide should be quick to pounce on.

First, there’s quarterback Aaron Murray’s inability to control his throws when under pressure. Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks showed this by regularly blitzing, lowering Murray’s completion rate to just 23%. In addition, South Carolina also picked off a throw and sacked Murray twice.

Another flaw Georgia has is its lack of a decent offensive line. In the South Carolina loss, the Bulldogs had 12 negative plays (e.g., sacks, interceptions, loss of yards), with nine of them against a four-man pass rush. With Murray losing control when under pressure, combined with 6-7 linemen unable to protect him, Georgia is going to have a hard time getting anything going.

Another thing both teams share is that they’ve been here before and know what’s at stake.

Last year, the Bulldogs played in the SEC Championship game, where they were shut down by LSU and sent off to the Outback Bowl, stinging from the defeat that knocked them out of the title picture. This year, they come in with determination to win, as a defeat will all but eliminate its chances of the title.  Georgia coach Mark Richt summed it up by saying, “Physically, mentally, be ready to handle your business when the ball kicks off. That’s my only focus.”

On the other side, this is Alabama’s 8^th SEC title game, but its first against a team other than the Florida Gators. Alabama Coach Nick Saban comes into this game excited and ready. “Regardless of what you accomplished in the past,” said Saban, “this is the most important game we’re going to play this year.”

No matter who has the better offense, or better defense, the path to the BCS National Championship goes through this game, so be ready for one of the most exciting games of the year.

With Alabama’s superior defense, expect Murray to be pounded early and often by the relentless Tide attack. Turnovers and other pressure-related problems will likely keep the Bulldogs in check. Meanwhile, Georgia’s NFL-caliber defense will keep it close, but McCarron’s experience and the chance to appear in his second championship game will drive Alabama to a win. Alabama 21, Georgia 10